Al Riyadh 0-1 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Riyadh at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Riyadh vs Al-Ittihad FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Riyadh host Al-Ittihad FC at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 24 October 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Riyadh have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al Riyadh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Al Riyadh have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium this season.
Al-Ittihad FC — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al-Ittihad FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Al Riyadh) versus 2.20 (Al-Ittihad FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al Riyadh, 2 for Al-Ittihad FC and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2024, ended 0–2 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al Riyadh trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Al-Ittihad FC trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Riyadh 58% and Al-Ittihad FC 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Riyadh 56% | Al-Ittihad FC 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Riyadh 1.56 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Riyadh attack 1.042 / defence 1.071 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.026 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.336. Data: 41 Al Riyadh games / 41 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Riyadh 40% | Draw 24% | Al-Ittihad FC 36%. Fair-value odds: Al Riyadh 2.50 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Ittihad FC 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Riyadh as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Riyadh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Riyadh 80% | Al-Ittihad FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Riyadh vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 24 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Riyadh 40% | Draw 24% | Al-Ittihad FC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Al Riyadh 1.56 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Al Riyadh attack 1.042 / def 1.071 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.026 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Al Riyadh (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Al Riyadh xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Al-Ittihad FC xG
61%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Riyadh vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al Riyadh vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 24 October 2024 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Riyadh vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al Riyadh 0 - 1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al Riyadh vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Riyadh vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al Riyadh vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Riyadh vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Riyadh a 40% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 36% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al Riyadh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Riyadh vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al Riyadh and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Riyadh vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (2 meetings): Al Riyadh 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Ittihad FC 2W.
What form are Al Riyadh and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al Riyadh (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Al Riyadh vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al Riyadh's attack at 1.04x the league average against Al-Ittihad FC's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad FC's attack versus Al Riyadh's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Riyadh Win
40%
2.51
24%
4.14
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Al Riyadh xG
Total xG
3.02
1.47
Al-Ittihad FC xG
2.51
40%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
9%
10.87
8%
13.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.1 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Riyadh vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Al Riyadh and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Al Riyadh and 1.47 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Riyadh vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Riyadh's recent record stands at 12W 12D 17L from 41 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al Riyadh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ittihad FC, meanwhile, have gone 22W 6D 13L across 41 games — 1.76 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad FC by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Riyadh heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al Riyadh have managed 6W 7D 7L from 20 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ittihad FC's away record stands at 9W 4D 7L across 20 trips, a 1.55 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Riyadh are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 2.02 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC in 66%.
Last 41 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Riyadh
Early Season
Al-Ittihad FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Riyadh and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al Riyadh have gone 12W 12D 17L in their last 41 games (1.17 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 22W 6D 13L in their last 41 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Riyadh at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Riyadh at home: 1.25 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 1.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Aug 2023, when Al-Ittihad FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Riyadh's record when hosting Al-Ittihad FC specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al Riyadh
0
Draws
5
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Riyadh have won 1, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Riyadh and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Al Riyadh 3-1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Riyadh and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Riyadh 55%, Al-Ittihad FC 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al Riyadh) and 60% (Al-Ittihad FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC in 35%; Al Riyadh have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Riyadh home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Riyadh play Al-Ittihad FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Al Riyadh's games and 55% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Riyadh vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al Riyadh's matches and 60% of Al-Ittihad FC's.
Do Al Riyadh and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al Riyadh have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Ittihad FC defy the odds to beat Al Riyadh 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al Riyadh 0-1 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 1.56 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.47 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Riyadh fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 1.04 / defence 1.07 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.03 / defence 1.04, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 40% | Draw 24% | Al-Ittihad FC 36%, with Al Riyadh to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Al-Ittihad FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 56%, Al-Ittihad FC 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Riyadh's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.