Al-Raed 2-2 Al Wehda Club – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Raed at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Raed vs Al Wehda Club encounter.

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Full Analysis

Al Raid Club Stadium plays host to Al-Raed versus Al Wehda Club in Pro League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Saturday 19 October 2024 at 16:05 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Al-Raed have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Al-Raed have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

At home at Al Raid Club Stadium, Al-Raed have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Al Wehda Club (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al Wehda Club have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Wehda Club have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

Historically, Al-Raed have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 4 meetings, with Al Wehda Club managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2024, ended 1–0 with Al-Raed winning.

The historical record gives Al-Raed a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Data

Al-Raed goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Al Wehda Club goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 52% versus Al Wehda Club 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 52% | Al Wehda Club 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.65 xG and Al Wehda Club 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.806 / defence 1.068 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.821 / defence 1.409. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.243. Al Wehda Club bring a strong defensive rating of 1.409 — this is suppressing Al-Raed's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Al-Raed games / 40 Al Wehda Club games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Raed 50% | Draw 24% | Al Wehda Club 25%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Al Wehda Club 4.00. Al-Raed hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Raed as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Raed if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Raed 50% | Al Wehda Club 50%.

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