Al-Raed 1-2 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al Shabab (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Raed face Al Shabab.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 22 as Al-Raed welcome Al Shabab to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 25 February 2025 at 14:10 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Raed — All Games: 1W 0D 9L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Raed have posted 2W 1D 7L at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Shabab have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Shabab have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al Shabab — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
Al Shabab have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 7 encounters against Al-Raed's 1 victories.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2024, ended 1–2 with Al Shabab winning.
It is worth noting that Al Shabab have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Al-Raed in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Al Shabab in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 53% versus Al Shabab 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 54% | Al Shabab 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.08 xG and Al Shabab 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.676 / defence 1.185 | Al Shabab attack 1.008 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.390. Al-Raed's attack strength of 0.676 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 55 Al-Raed games / 55 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 25% | Draw 24% | Al Shabab 51%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 4.00 | Draw 4.17 | Al Shabab 1.96. Al Shabab hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Shabab at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Raed 50% | Al Shabab 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 25 Feb 2025, 14:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 25% | Draw 24% | Al Shabab 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Al-Raed 1.08 / Al Shabab 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.676 / def 1.185 | Al Shabab attack 1.008 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.390 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Al Shabab xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al Shabab kicked off at 14:10 on Tuesday 25 February 2025 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al Shabab?
Al-Raed 1 - 2 Al Shabab.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al Shabab part of?
Al-Raed vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 25% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 51% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al-Raed and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al Shabab?
Record (7 meetings): Al-Raed 1W | Draws 1 | Al Shabab 5W.
What form are Al-Raed and Al Shabab in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Al Shabab (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Raed's attack at 0.68x the league average against Al Shabab's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Shabab's attack versus Al-Raed's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
25%
4.06
24%
4.10
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
2.74
1.66
Al Shabab xG
4.06
25%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
19%
5.26
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
5%
21.37
17%
5.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 10.7 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Al-Raed and 1.66 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Raed come into this having played 55 games, going 14W 12D 29L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Shabab sit at 1.40 PPG from 55 outings (22W 11D 22L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Shabab carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Al-Raed — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Raed's home form reads 7W 5D 15L across 27 games on their own ground, a 0.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Shabab have taken 1.15 points per game from 27 outings (8W 7D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Al-Raed are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.45 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 14W 12D 29L in their last 55 games (0.98 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 22W 11D 22L in their last 55 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Al Shabab away?
Al Shabab's away record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 0.96 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Al-Raed or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Raed have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Raed and Al Shabab runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al Shabab have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Nov 2021, when Al Shabab won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Raed's record when hosting Al Shabab specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Al-Raed
1
Draws
6
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al Shabab?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 1, Al Shabab have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2025, when Al-Raed 1-2 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al Shabab?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Al Shabab see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Raed 48%, Al Shabab 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Al-Raed) and 44% (Al Shabab).
On the defensive side: Al Shabab in 37%; Al-Raed have failed to score in 41% of games; Al Shabab in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Al Shabab?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Al-Raed's recent matches and 41% of Al Shabab's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Raed vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Al-Raed's recent games and 44% of Al Shabab's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Raed and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Shabab edge out Al-Raed 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Al-Raed 1-2 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.08 xG and Al Shabab 1.66 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.68 / defence 1.19 against Al Shabab attack 1.01 / defence 1.06, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 25% | Draw 24% | Al Shabab 51%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 54%, Al Shabab 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Al Shabab's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.98. Form held, and they took the win. Al Shabab (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.