Al-Qadisiyah FC 1-0 Al Khaleej Saihat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Qadisiyah FC host Al Khaleej Saihat at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 29 November 2024 at 14:25 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Qadisiyah FC — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium: 4W 0D 1L from 5 Pro League appearances (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Al-Qadisiyah FC are significantly better at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Khaleej Saihat stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Khaleej Saihat's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Qadisiyah FC at 1.90 PPG versus Al Khaleej Saihat's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
Al Khaleej Saihat in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 36% versus Al Khaleej Saihat 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 46% | Al Khaleej Saihat 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.41 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.999 / defence 0.839 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.067 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.250. Data: 11 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 45 Al Khaleej Saihat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 44% | Draw 26% | Al Khaleej Saihat 30%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Al Khaleej Saihat 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Qadisiyah FC at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Al-Qadisiyah FC 20% | Al Khaleej Saihat 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 Nov 2024, 14:25 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 44% | Draw 26% | Al Khaleej Saihat 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.41 / Al Khaleej Saihat 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.999 / def 0.839 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.067 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat kicked off at 14:25 on Friday 29 November 2024 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al-Qadisiyah FC 1 - 0 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 44% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Khaleej Saihat will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Khaleej Saihat?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Khaleej Saihat in?
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Qadisiyah FC's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Al Khaleej Saihat's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Al Khaleej Saihat's attack versus Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
44%
2.29
26%
3.77
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
2.53
1.12
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.77
26%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
14%
7.02
7%
13.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.6 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Khaleej Saihat expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1.12 for Al Khaleej Saihat, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent record stands at 7W 1D 3L from 11 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Qadisiyah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Khaleej Saihat, meanwhile, have gone 6W 1D 4L across 11 games — 1.73 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Qadisiyah FC on 2.00 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat on 1.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Qadisiyah FC have managed 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — 2.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Khaleej Saihat's away record stands at 3W 0D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 0.73 conceded per game recently; Al Khaleej Saihat are on 1.36 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their games; Al Khaleej Saihat in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Khaleej Saihat in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 7W 1D 3L in their last 11 games (2.00 PPG), while Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 6W 1D 4L in their last 11 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Al Khaleej Saihat away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.40 PPG; Al Khaleej Saihat away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Al-Qadisiyah FC or Al Khaleej Saihat been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their recent games, Al Khaleej Saihat in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 3 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Qadisiyah FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's record when hosting Al Khaleej Saihat specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Al-Qadisiyah FC
1
Draws
0
Al Khaleej Saihat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Khaleej Saihat?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 3, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Khaleej Saihat last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2026, when Al Khaleej Saihat 0-1 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time.
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Qadisiyah FC 20%, Al Khaleej Saihat 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Al-Qadisiyah FC) and 60% (Al Khaleej Saihat).
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al Khaleej Saihat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Qadisiyah FC play Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent matches and 60% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent games and 60% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Khaleej Saihat tend to score early?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al Khaleej Saihat in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Qadisiyah FC edge out Al Khaleej Saihat 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al Khaleej Saihat 1-0 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.41 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.12 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Khaleej Saihat landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.00 / defence 0.84 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.07 / defence 0.99, drawn from 11/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 44% | Draw 26% | Al Khaleej Saihat 30%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 46%, Al Khaleej Saihat 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.00 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Qadisiyah FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.