Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Al-Hilal Saudi FC travel to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to take on Al-Qadisiyah FC. The game is scheduled for Monday 27 January 2025, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 8W 0D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC have posted 5W 0D 2L at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium — 2.14 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 7 home games (57%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 14% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.40 PPG, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 25% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Qadisiyah FC 50% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 88%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.01 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.799 / defence 1.010 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.526 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.400. Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack strength of 0.799 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.526 — the away xG of 2.16 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 16 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 50 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 17% | Draw 20% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 64%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 5.88 | Draw 5.00 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.56. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (64%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Qadisiyah FC 14% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 27 Jan 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 17% | Draw 20% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 56% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.01 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.16 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.799 / def 1.010 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.526 / def 0.861 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
2.16
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
56%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 27 January 2025 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Qadisiyah FC 2 - 1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 17% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 64% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack rating (0.80) and Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack versus Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence, projects 2.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
17%
5.99
20%
5.06
64%
1.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
3.17
2.16
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
5.99
17%
Home win
5.06
20%
Draw
1.57
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
12%
8.65
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
2%
51.77
23%
4.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 2.16 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Qadisiyah FC come into this having played 16 games, going 11W 1D 4L for 2.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Al-Qadisiyah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC sit at 2.69 PPG from 16 outings (14W 1D 1L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Al-Qadisiyah FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home form reads 5W 0D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have taken 2.29 points per game from 7 outings (5W 1D 1L).
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.69 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 3.25 scored and 0.94 conceded. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attacking output running into Al-Qadisiyah FC's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Qadisiyah FC have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 62%.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 62% of their games; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 11W 1D 4L in their last 16 games (2.12 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 14W 1D 1L in their last 16 (2.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.14 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.29 PPG.
Have Al-Qadisiyah FC or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 62% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 29 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's record when hosting Al-Hilal Saudi FC specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al-Qadisiyah FC
2
Draws
1
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 1, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 29 January 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Qadisiyah FC 14%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 43% for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 86% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Al-Qadisiyah FC have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Qadisiyah FC play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 14% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent matches and 71% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's matches and 86% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Qadisiyah FC defy the odds to beat Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-1 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.01 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.16 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Al-Qadisiyah FC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Hilal Saudi FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.80 / defence 1.01 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.53 / defence 0.86, drawn from 16/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 17% | Draw 20% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 64%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Al-Qadisiyah FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 88%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.69 PPG against 2.12. Form was overturned, with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.71 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.