Al Orubah 3-2 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Taawon at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Orubah vs Al Taawon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 34 as Al Orubah welcome Al Taawon to Al-Jouf University Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 26 May 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Orubah — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
Al Orubah at Al-Jouf University Stadium this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Al Orubah are significantly better at Al-Jouf University Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Taawon stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Al Taawon's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al Taawon — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al Orubah, 0 for Al Taawon and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 26 Jan 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Al Orubah in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 52% of games.
Al Taawon in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Orubah 36% versus Al Taawon 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Orubah 61% | Al Taawon 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Orubah 0.77 xG and Al Taawon 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Orubah attack 0.693 / defence 1.347 | Al Taawon attack 0.760 / defence 0.721. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.433. Al Orubah's attack strength of 0.693 is below the league average — the 0.77 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al Taawon's defence strength of 0.721 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 33 Al Orubah games / 67 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Orubah 20% | Draw 27% | Al Taawon 54%. Fair-value odds: Al Orubah 5.00 | Draw 3.70 | Al Taawon 1.85. Al Taawon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Taawon at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taawon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al Orubah 50% | Al Taawon 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Orubah vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Al-Jouf University Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 26 May 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Orubah 20% | Draw 27% | Al Taawon 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 41% | xG Al Orubah 0.77 / Al Taawon 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Al Orubah attack 0.693 / def 1.347 | Al Taawon attack 0.760 / def 0.721 | league avg home 1.542 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Al Orubah xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Al Taawon xG
41%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Orubah vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al Orubah vs Al Taawon kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 26 May 2025 at Al-Jouf University Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Orubah vs Al Taawon?
Al Orubah 3 - 2 Al Taawon.
Where is Al Orubah vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Al-Jouf University Stadium.
What competition is Al Orubah vs Al Taawon part of?
Al Orubah vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Orubah vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al Orubah a 20% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 54% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Orubah vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Al Orubah and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al Orubah vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Orubah and Al Taawon?
Record (1 meetings): Al Orubah 0W | Draws 1 | Al Taawon 0W.
What form are Al Orubah and Al Taawon in?
Al Orubah (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Al Taawon (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al Orubah's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Al Taawon's defensive record (0.72x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.77. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taawon's attack versus Al Orubah's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
20%
5.09
27%
3.76
54%
1.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Al Orubah xG
Total xG
2.24
1.47
Al Taawon xG
5.09
20%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
1.86
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
46%
2.16
Win to Nil
5%
22.10
25%
4.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 15.7 | 11.5 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.1 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Orubah vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Al Orubah and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Al Orubah and 1.47 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Orubah vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Orubah's recent record stands at 9W 3D 21L from 33 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Al Taawon, meanwhile, have gone 12W 9D 12L across 33 games — 1.36 PPG, with W-L-L-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Taawon by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Orubah heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al Orubah have managed 5W 1D 10L from 16 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Taawon's away record stands at 5W 4D 7L across 16 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Orubah are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.15 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Orubah
Current Season
Al Taawon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Orubah and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al Orubah have gone 9W 3D 21L in their last 33 games (0.91 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 12W 9D 12L in their last 33 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Orubah at home or Al Taawon away?
Al Taawon's away record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Orubah at home: 1.00 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Al Orubah or Al Taawon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Orubah have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Al Taawon in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Al Orubah
1
Draws
0
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Orubah and Al Taawon?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Orubah have won 1, Al Taawon have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Orubah and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 26 May 2025, when Al Orubah 3-2 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al Orubah and Al Taawon?
Al Orubah have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Orubah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Al Taawon see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Al Orubah 31% BTTS, Al Taawon 31%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al Orubah) and 25% (Al Taawon).
On the defensive side: Al Taawon in 31%; Al Orubah have failed to score in 50% of games; Al Taawon in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Orubah home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Orubah play Al Taawon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Al Orubah's recent matches and 31% of Al Taawon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Orubah vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al Orubah's recent games and 25% of Al Taawon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Orubah and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al Orubah have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Orubah defy the odds to beat Al Taawon 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Orubah beat Al Taawon 3-2 at Al-Jouf University Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Orubah 0.77 xG and Al Taawon 1.47 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al Orubah beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Orubah attack 0.69 / defence 1.35 against Al Taawon attack 0.76 / defence 0.72, drawn from 33/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Orubah 20% | Draw 27% | Al Taawon 54%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Al Orubah win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Orubah 61%, Al Taawon 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Orubah's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Al Taawon's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.91. Form was overturned, with Al Orubah winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Orubah (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm. Al Taawon (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.