Al Orubah 0-4 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 38%, yet in-form Al Orubah provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al Orubah vs Al-Raed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al-Jouf University Stadium plays host to Al Orubah versus Al-Raed in Pro League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Saturday 19 April 2025 at 17:25 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Orubah have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Orubah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Orubah have posted 3W 0D 7L at Al-Jouf University Stadium — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al-Raed (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Raed's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Al Orubah's favour (1.20 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Al Orubah 0W, Al-Raed 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2024, ended 1–3 with Al-Raed winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al Orubah goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Al-Raed goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Orubah 30% versus Al-Raed 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Orubah 52% | Al-Raed 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Orubah 1.45 xG and Al-Raed 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Orubah attack 0.756 / defence 1.204 | Al-Raed attack 0.964 / defence 1.318. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.291. Al Orubah's attack strength of 0.756 is below the league average — the 1.45 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Raed bring a strong defensive rating of 1.318 — this is suppressing Al Orubah's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Al Orubah games / 61 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Orubah 36% | Draw 26% | Al-Raed 38%. Fair-value odds: Al Orubah 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Raed 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Raed at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al Orubah (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Raed if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al Orubah 30% | Al-Raed 60%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Orubah vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Al-Jouf University Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Apr 2025, 17:25 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Orubah 36% | Draw 26% | Al-Raed 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Al Orubah 1.45 / Al-Raed 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Al Orubah attack 0.756 / def 1.204 | Al-Raed attack 0.964 / def 1.318 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Al-Raed (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Al Orubah xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Al-Raed xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Orubah vs Al-Raed kick off?
Al Orubah vs Al-Raed kicked off at 17:25 on Saturday 19 April 2025 at Al-Jouf University Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Orubah vs Al-Raed?
Al Orubah 0 - 4 Al-Raed.
Where is Al Orubah vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at Al-Jouf University Stadium.
What competition is Al Orubah vs Al-Raed part of?
Al Orubah vs Al-Raed is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Orubah vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Al Orubah a 36% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Raed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Orubah vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al Orubah and Al-Raed will score (BTTS).
Will Al Orubah vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Orubah and Al-Raed?
Record (1 meetings): Al Orubah 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Raed 1W.
What form are Al Orubah and Al-Raed in?
Al Orubah (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Al-Raed (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Orubah's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Al-Raed's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. Flip it around — Al-Raed's attack (0.96x) against Al Orubah's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 27/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Raed Win
36%
2.76
26%
3.92
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Al Orubah xG
Total xG
2.95
1.50
Al-Raed xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
22%
4.48
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
8%
12.37
9%
11.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.8 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.4 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.3 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Orubah vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Al Orubah and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Al Orubah and 1.50 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Orubah vs Al-Raed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Orubah come into this having played 27 games, going 8W 2D 17L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Al Orubah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Raed sit at 0.67 PPG from 27 outings (5W 3D 19L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for Al Orubah against 0.67 for Al-Raed. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Al Orubah's home form reads 5W 0D 8L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Raed have taken 0.77 points per game from 13 outings (3W 1D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
Al Orubah are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.07 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Orubah have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games.
Last 27 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Orubah
Blended
Al-Raed
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Orubah and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Al Orubah have gone 8W 2D 17L in their last 27 games (0.96 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 5W 3D 19L in their last 27 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Orubah at home or Al-Raed away?
Al Orubah's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Orubah at home: 1.15 PPG; Al-Raed away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al Orubah
0
Draws
2
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Orubah and Al-Raed?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Orubah have won 0, Al-Raed have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Orubah and Al-Raed last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2025, when Al Orubah 0-4 Al-Raed.
Who has won more matches between Al Orubah and Al-Raed?
Al-Raed have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Orubah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Orubah 23%, Al-Raed 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Al Orubah) and 69% (Al-Raed).
On the defensive side: Al Orubah have failed to score in 54% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Orubah home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Orubah play Al-Raed?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 23% of Al Orubah's recent matches and 62% of Al-Raed's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Orubah vs Al-Raed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Al Orubah's recent games and 69% of Al-Raed's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Orubah and Al-Raed tend to score early?
Al Orubah have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Al-Raed in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Raed run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Al Orubah.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Raed beat Al Orubah 0-4 at Al-Jouf University Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Orubah 1.45 xG and Al-Raed 1.50 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Al Orubah fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Al-Raed outscored their 1.50 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Orubah attack 0.76 / defence 1.20 against Al-Raed attack 0.96 / defence 1.32, drawn from 27/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Orubah 36% | Draw 26% | Al-Raed 38%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Orubah 52%, Al-Raed 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Orubah's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Raed's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Orubah 0.96 PPG, Al-Raed 0.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Raed win broke the near-deadlock. Al Orubah (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Raed (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.