Al Orubah 1-2 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Orubah vs Al-Ettifaq fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Al-Ettifaq travel to Al-Jouf University Stadium to take on Al Orubah. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 March 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Orubah stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al Orubah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Orubah's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 games at Al-Jouf University Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq away from home this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Orubah 1.30 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al Orubah, 0 for Al-Ettifaq and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2024, ended 3–2 with Al Orubah winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al Orubah in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 18% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
Al-Ettifaq in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Orubah 30% versus Al-Ettifaq 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Orubah 52% | Al-Ettifaq 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Orubah 1.01 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Orubah attack 0.803 / defence 1.179 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.149 / defence 0.840. League average goals — home 1.493 / away 1.340. Data: 23 Al Orubah games / 57 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Orubah 21% | Draw 23% | Al-Ettifaq 56%. Fair-value odds: Al Orubah 4.76 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Ettifaq 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ettifaq (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al Orubah 20% | Al-Ettifaq 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Orubah vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Al-Jouf University Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Mar 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Orubah 21% | Draw 23% | Al-Ettifaq 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 53% | xG Al Orubah 1.01 / Al-Ettifaq 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Al Orubah attack 0.803 / def 1.179 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.149 / def 0.840 | league avg home 1.493 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Al Orubah xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Al-Ettifaq xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Orubah vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al Orubah vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 8 March 2025 at Al-Jouf University Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Orubah vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al Orubah 1 - 2 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al Orubah vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Al-Jouf University Stadium.
What competition is Al Orubah vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al Orubah vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Orubah vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al Orubah a 21% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 56% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Orubah vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al Orubah and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al Orubah vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Orubah and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (1 meetings): Al Orubah 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Ettifaq 0W.
What form are Al Orubah and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al Orubah (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al Orubah's attack at 0.80x the league average against Al-Ettifaq's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Al Orubah's defence, projects 1.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
21%
4.82
23%
4.36
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Al Orubah xG
Total xG
2.82
1.81
Al-Ettifaq xG
4.82
21%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
16%
6.13
37%
2.74
Win to Nil
3%
29.55
21%
4.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Orubah vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Al Orubah and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Al Orubah and 1.81 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Orubah vs Al-Ettifaq?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 23 outings, Al Orubah have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 8W 2D 13L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al Orubah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ettifaq's form line: 9W 5D 9L from 23 games, 1.39 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-D. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Orubah on 1.13 PPG, Al-Ettifaq on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Orubah have posted 1.36 PPG from 11 outings (5W 0D 6L).
On the road, Al-Ettifaq have gone 5W 5D 1L from 11 away games — 1.82 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.39 PPG overall record — Al-Ettifaq travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ettifaq come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Orubah are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.30 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Orubah
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Orubah and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al Orubah have gone 8W 2D 13L in their last 23 games (1.13 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 9W 5D 9L in their last 23 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Orubah at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Ettifaq's away record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Orubah at home: 1.36 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Orubah and Al-Ettifaq runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Al Orubah
0
Draws
1
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Orubah and Al-Ettifaq?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Orubah have won 1, Al-Ettifaq have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Orubah and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Al Orubah 1-2 Al-Ettifaq.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Orubah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Orubah 18%, Al-Ettifaq 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Al Orubah) and 54% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al Orubah have failed to score in 54% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Orubah home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Orubah play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 18% of Al Orubah's recent matches and 73% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Orubah vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Al Orubah's recent games and 54% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Orubah and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al Orubah have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ettifaq edge out Al Orubah 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al Orubah 1-2 at Al-Jouf University Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Orubah 1.01 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.81 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Orubah attack 0.80 / defence 1.18 against Al-Ettifaq attack 1.15 / defence 0.84, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Orubah 21% | Draw 23% | Al-Ettifaq 56%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Orubah 52%, Al-Ettifaq 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Orubah's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Orubah 1.13 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ettifaq win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.