Al Okhdood 1-1 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al Taawon (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Okhdood face Al Taawon.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Al Taawon travel to Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium to take on Al Okhdood. The game is scheduled for Friday 11 April 2025, 16:55 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Okhdood stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Okhdood's home record at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Taawon have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Taawon have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al Taawon are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Al Taawon, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Al Okhdood.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 0–1 with Al Taawon winning.
It is worth noting that Al Taawon have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Al Okhdood trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Al Taawon trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 48% versus Al Taawon 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 52% | Al Taawon 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 0.79 xG and Al Taawon 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.800 / defence 1.106 | Al Taawon attack 0.879 / defence 0.684. League average goals — home 1.437 / away 1.315. Al Taawon's defence strength of 0.684 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 60 Al Okhdood games / 60 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 23% | Draw 29% | Al Taawon 48%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 4.35 | Draw 3.45 | Al Taawon 2.08. Al Taawon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taawon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.06 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Al Okhdood 60% | Al Taawon 10% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Okhdood vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 11 Apr 2025, 16:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Okhdood 23% | Draw 29% | Al Taawon 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 39% | xG Al Okhdood 0.79 / Al Taawon 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Al Okhdood attack 0.800 / def 1.106 | Al Taawon attack 0.879 / def 0.684 | league avg home 1.437 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Al Okhdood xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Al Taawon xG
39%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Okhdood vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al Okhdood vs Al Taawon kicked off at 16:55 on Friday 11 April 2025 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Okhdood vs Al Taawon?
Al Okhdood 1 - 1 Al Taawon.
Where is Al Okhdood vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Okhdood vs Al Taawon part of?
Al Okhdood vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Okhdood vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al Okhdood a 23% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 48% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Okhdood vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Al Okhdood and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al Okhdood vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al Taawon?
Record (3 meetings): Al Okhdood 0W | Draws 0 | Al Taawon 3W.
What form are Al Okhdood and Al Taawon in?
Al Okhdood (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Al Taawon (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al Okhdood's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Al Taawon's defensive record (0.68x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.79. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taawon's attack versus Al Okhdood's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.4%), 0-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
23%
4.36
29%
3.44
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Al Okhdood xG
Total xG
2.06
1.28
Al Taawon xG
4.36
23%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
46%
2.20
Win to Nil
6%
15.65
22%
4.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 16.2 | 10.4 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.8 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Okhdood vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Al Okhdood and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Al Okhdood and 1.28 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Okhdood vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Al Okhdood have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 15W 11D 34L record — L-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al Okhdood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taawon's form line: 26W 18D 16L from 60 games, 1.60 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al Taawon are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Okhdood.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al Okhdood have posted 0.93 PPG from 30 outings (8W 4D 18L).
On the road, Al Taawon have gone 12W 10D 8L from 30 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Okhdood are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.33 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Al Taawon in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Okhdood
Blended
Al Taawon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Okhdood and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al Okhdood have gone 15W 11D 34L in their last 60 games (0.93 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 26W 18D 16L in their last 60 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Okhdood at home or Al Taawon away?
Al Taawon's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Okhdood at home: 0.93 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Al Okhdood or Al Taawon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Okhdood have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Al Taawon in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al Taawon have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Al Okhdood's record when hosting Al Taawon specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al Okhdood
1
Draws
5
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al Taawon?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Okhdood have won 0, Al Taawon have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Okhdood and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Al Taawon 1-0 Al Okhdood.
Who has won more matches between Al Okhdood and Al Taawon?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Al Taawon see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Okhdood 53%, Al Taawon 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Al Okhdood) and 30% (Al Taawon).
On the defensive side: Al Taawon in 40%; Al Okhdood have failed to score in 30% of games; Al Taawon in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Okhdood home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Okhdood play Al Taawon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Al Okhdood's recent matches and 40% of Al Taawon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Okhdood vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Al Okhdood's recent games and 30% of Al Taawon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Okhdood and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al Okhdood have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Okhdood and Al Taawon share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Okhdood and Al Taawon finished level at 1-1 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 0.79 xG and Al Taawon 1.28 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.80 / defence 1.11 against Al Taawon attack 0.88 / defence 0.68, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 23% | Draw 29% | Al Taawon 48%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 52%, Al Taawon 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Okhdood's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Al Taawon's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.