Al Okhdood 1-2 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Okhdood at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Okhdood host Al-Fayha at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 16 January 2025 at 13:55 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Okhdood stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Okhdood have posted 2W 3D 5L at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fayha have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Fayha have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Okhdood at 1.10 PPG versus Al-Fayha's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al Okhdood, 2 for Al-Fayha and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2024, ended 0–3 with Al-Fayha winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al Okhdood in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Al-Fayha in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 50% versus Al-Fayha 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 54% | Al-Fayha 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.37 xG and Al-Fayha 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.925 / defence 0.940 | Al-Fayha attack 0.794 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.458. Data: 48 Al Okhdood games / 48 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 43% | Draw 27% | Al-Fayha 30%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Fayha 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Okhdood are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Okhdood offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al Okhdood 50% | Al-Fayha 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 16 Jan 2025, 13:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Okhdood 43% | Draw 27% | Al-Fayha 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Al Okhdood 1.37 / Al-Fayha 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Al Okhdood attack 0.925 / def 0.940 | Al-Fayha attack 0.794 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.458 • Poisson stance: Al Okhdood (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Al Okhdood xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Al-Fayha xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 13:55 on Thursday 16 January 2025 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha?
Al Okhdood 1 - 2 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al Okhdood a 43% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al Okhdood the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al Okhdood and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al-Fayha?
Record (2 meetings): Al Okhdood 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Fayha 2W.
What form are Al Okhdood and Al-Fayha in?
Al Okhdood (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Al-Fayha (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al Okhdood's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Al-Fayha's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus Al Okhdood's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Okhdood Win
43%
2.31
27%
3.72
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Al Okhdood xG
Total xG
2.46
1.09
Al-Fayha xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
15%
6.85
8%
13.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.7 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Al Okhdood and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Al Okhdood and 1.09 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Okhdood's recent record stands at 12W 9D 27L from 48 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Al Okhdood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fayha, meanwhile, have gone 12W 17D 19L across 48 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-L-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Okhdood on 0.94 PPG, Al-Fayha on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al Okhdood have managed 7W 3D 14L from 24 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fayha's away record stands at 7W 8D 9L across 24 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Okhdood are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.12 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Okhdood
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Okhdood and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al Okhdood have gone 12W 9D 27L in their last 48 games (0.94 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 12W 17D 19L in their last 48 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Okhdood at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Fayha's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Okhdood at home: 1.00 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Fayha go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Mar 2026, when Al-Fayha won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Okhdood's record when hosting Al-Fayha specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al Okhdood
0
Draws
6
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al-Fayha?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Okhdood have won 0, Al-Fayha have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Okhdood and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Al Okhdood 0-5 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al Okhdood and Al-Fayha?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Okhdood 50%, Al-Fayha 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Al Okhdood and 62% for Al-Fayha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Okhdood have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Okhdood home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Okhdood play Al-Fayha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al Okhdood's games and 71% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Al Okhdood's matches and 62% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al Okhdood and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al Okhdood have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Fayha defy the odds to beat Al Okhdood 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha beat Al Okhdood 1-2 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 1.37 xG and Al-Fayha 1.09 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al-Fayha outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.93 / defence 0.94 against Al-Fayha attack 0.79 / defence 1.09, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 43% | Draw 27% | Al-Fayha 30%, with Al Okhdood to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Al-Fayha win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 54%, Al-Fayha 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Okhdood's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Okhdood 0.94 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fayha win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.