Al-Raed 0-2 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Okhdood at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Raed vs Al Okhdood fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Raed and Al Okhdood meet at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Monday 20 January 2025 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Raed have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Raed's home record at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Okhdood (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Okhdood have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Al-Raed, 0.80 for Al Okhdood — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Raed have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al Okhdood in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al-Raed, 1 for Al Okhdood and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2024, ended 3–1 with Al-Raed winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Raed — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Al Okhdood — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 53% versus Al Okhdood 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 55% | Al Okhdood 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.36 xG and Al Okhdood 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.811 / defence 1.058 | Al Okhdood attack 0.976 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.432. Data: 49 Al-Raed games / 49 Al Okhdood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 35% | Draw 25% | Al Okhdood 40%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | Al Okhdood 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Okhdood are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Okhdood if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Raed 60% | Al Okhdood 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al Okhdood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 20 Jan 2025, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 35% | Draw 25% | Al Okhdood 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Al-Raed 1.36 / Al Okhdood 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.811 / def 1.058 | Al Okhdood attack 0.976 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Al Okhdood (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Al Okhdood xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Al Okhdood kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al Okhdood kicked off at 15:15 on Monday 20 January 2025 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al Okhdood?
Al-Raed 0 - 2 Al Okhdood.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al Okhdood being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al Okhdood part of?
Al-Raed vs Al Okhdood is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al Okhdood?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 35% chance of winning, Al Okhdood a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Okhdood the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al Okhdood?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al-Raed and Al Okhdood will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Al Okhdood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al Okhdood?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Raed 1W | Draws 0 | Al Okhdood 1W.
What form are Al-Raed and Al Okhdood in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Al Okhdood (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Raed's attack at 0.81x the league average against Al Okhdood's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Okhdood's attack (0.98x) against Al-Raed's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Okhdood Win
35%
2.86
25%
4.00
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
2.84
1.48
Al Okhdood xG
2.86
35%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
23%
4.39
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
8%
12.56
10%
9.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.7 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.0 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al Okhdood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al Okhdood expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Al-Raed and 1.48 for Al Okhdood, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al Okhdood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Raed come into this having played 49 games, going 13W 12D 24L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Okhdood sit at 0.92 PPG from 49 outings (12W 9D 28L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Al Okhdood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Al-Raed against 0.92 for Al Okhdood. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Raed's home form reads 7W 5D 12L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Okhdood have taken 0.88 points per game from 24 outings (5W 6D 13L).
Attack vs Defence
Al-Raed are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Al Okhdood are on 1.04 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Blended
Al Okhdood
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Al Okhdood in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 13W 12D 24L in their last 49 games (1.04 PPG), while Al Okhdood have gone 12W 9D 28L in their last 49 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Al Okhdood away?
Al-Raed's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 1.08 PPG; Al Okhdood away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Al Okhdood have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Raed have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Okhdood — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al-Raed
0
Draws
3
Al Okhdood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al Okhdood?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 1, Al Okhdood have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al Okhdood last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2025, when Al Okhdood 1-0 Al-Raed.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al Okhdood?
Al Okhdood have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Raed 50%, Al Okhdood 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Al-Raed) and 50% (Al Okhdood).
On the defensive side: Al-Raed have failed to score in 38% of games; Al Okhdood in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al Okhdood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Al Okhdood?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al-Raed's recent matches and 50% of Al Okhdood's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Raed vs Al Okhdood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Al-Raed's recent games and 50% of Al Okhdood's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Raed and Al Okhdood tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al Okhdood in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Okhdood cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al-Raed.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Okhdood beat Al-Raed 0-2 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.36 xG and Al Okhdood 1.48 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al-Raed fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.81 / defence 1.06 against Al Okhdood attack 0.98 / defence 1.17, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 35% | Draw 25% | Al Okhdood 40%, with Al Okhdood to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 55%, Al Okhdood 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Okhdood's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Raed 1.04 PPG, Al Okhdood 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Okhdood win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Raed (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.