Al-Nassr 2-1 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Nassr face Al Taawon.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Nassr host Al Taawon at King Saud University Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 28 August 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Nassr stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Al-Nassr have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Nassr's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 games at King Saud University Stadium this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Saud University Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al Taawon — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al Taawon have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Taawon have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Al-Nassr have the edge — a 1.60 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
Al-Nassr hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 2 for Al Taawon, with 2 draws in between.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jan 2026, ended 1–0 with Al-Nassr winning.
The historical record gives Al-Nassr a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al-Nassr in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; they lead at the break 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
Al Taawon in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 49% versus Al Taawon 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 68% | Al Taawon 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 2.20 xG and Al Taawon 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.373 / defence 0.754 | Al Taawon attack 1.107 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.392. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack strength of 1.373 — their λ of 2.20 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Nassr's defence rating of 0.754 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Al-Nassr games / 37 Al Taawon games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 60% | Draw 23% | Al Taawon 18%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Al Taawon 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.20 / 1.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.36 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Nassr 30% | Al Taawon 70%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: King Saud University Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 28 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 60% | Draw 23% | Al Taawon 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 63% | xG Al-Nassr 2.20 / Al Taawon 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.373 / def 0.754 | Al Taawon attack 1.107 / def 1.159 | league avg home 1.383 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.20
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Al Taawon xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 28 August 2026 at King Saud University Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon?
Al-Nassr 2 - 1 Al Taawon.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at King Saud University Stadium.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 60% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al Taawon?
Record (9 meetings): Al-Nassr 5W | Draws 2 | Al Taawon 2W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al Taawon in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Al Taawon (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Nassr's attacking strength (1.37x league average) is weighed against Al Taawon's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.20. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taawon's attack versus Al-Nassr's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
60%
1.68
23%
4.40
18%
5.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.20
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
3.36
1.16
Al Taawon xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
5.63
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
11%
9.03
Win to Nil
19%
5.37
2%
50.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 2.20 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.16 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Nassr come into this having played 37 games, going 31W 2D 4L for 2.57 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Nassr, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Taawon sit at 1.49 PPG from 37 outings (15W 10D 12L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Taawon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.08 PPG clear of Al Taawon — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Nassr's home form reads 16W 1D 1L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.72 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Taawon have taken 1.50 points per game from 18 outings (8W 3D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.73 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.65 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon in 62%.
Defensively: Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Early Season
Al Taawon
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 31W 2D 4L in their last 37 games (2.57 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 15W 10D 12L in their last 37 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al Taawon away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.72 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al Taawon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their recent games, Al Taawon in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Nassr and Al Taawon runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Nassr go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2025, when Al-Nassr won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Nassr's record when hosting Al Taawon specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Al-Nassr
2
Draws
2
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al Taawon?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 6, Al Taawon have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Al-Nassr 2-1 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al Taawon?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 50%, Al Taawon 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Al-Nassr and 61% for Al Taawon. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al Taawon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al-Nassr's games and 67% of Al Taawon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Al-Nassr's matches and 61% of Al Taawon's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Nassr edge out Al Taawon 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al Taawon 2-1 at King Saud University Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 2.20 xG and Al Taawon 1.16 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.37 / defence 0.75 against Al Taawon attack 1.11 / defence 1.16, drawn from 37/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 60% | Draw 23% | Al Taawon 18%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 68%, Al Taawon 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Taawon's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.57 PPG against 1.49. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.