Al-Nassr 2-2 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (54%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Al-Nassr face Al Shabab.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Al-Nassr welcome Al Shabab to Al-Awwal Park in Pro League (matchday 24). Kick-off is Friday 7 March 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Al-Nassr have gone 7W 1D 2L — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Al-Nassr have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Shabab stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Al Shabab's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Al-Nassr's games and 60% of Al Shabab's (from Al-Nassr's last 10 home games and Al Shabab's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Al-Nassr: 5 wins from 7 H2H matches against 1 for Al Shabab, with 1 draw.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.4 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 18 Oct 2024, ended Al-Nassr 2–1 Al Shabab — a Al-Nassr win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Al-Nassr and goals — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches and an average of 3.4 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Al-Nassr trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 61% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Al Shabab trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Nassr 68% and Al Shabab 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 75% | Al Shabab 54%). Note also that Al Shabab surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Al-Nassr recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 67% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 2.06 xG and Al Shabab 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.304 / defence 0.938 | Al Shabab attack 1.071 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.319. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack rating of 1.304 — their 2.06 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Al-Nassr's last 57 games and Al Shabab's last 57.
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 54% | Draw 21% | Al Shabab 24%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 1.84 | Draw 4.71 | Al Shabab 4.10. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (2.06 / 1.32) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.38 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Nassr's last 10 home games and Al Shabab's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Nassr 60% (last 10 home games) | Al Shabab 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, matchday 24 | Venue: Al-Awwal Park • Kick-off: Friday 7 March 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 54% | Draw 21% | Al Shabab 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Al-Nassr 2.06 / Al Shabab 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.304 / def 0.938 | Al Shabab attack 1.071 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Al Shabab xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al Shabab FAQs
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al Shabab kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 7 March 2025 at Al-Awwal Park.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al Shabab?
Al-Nassr 2 - 2 Al Shabab.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Al-Awwal Park.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al Shabab part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al Shabab is a Pro League fixture (matchday 24) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 54% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 24% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al Shabab will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Nassr vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Nassr's attack at 1.30x the league average against Al Shabab's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 2.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Shabab's attack versus Al-Nassr's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Nassr's last 57 games and Al Shabab's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
54%
1.84
21%
4.71
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
3.38
1.32
Al Shabab xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.71
21%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
13%
7.85
Win to Nil
14%
6.92
3%
32.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al Shabab Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.32 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Nassr's recent record stands at 40W 9D 8L from 57 games, a 2.26 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Al Shabab, meanwhile, have gone 24W 11D 22L across 57 games — 1.46 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Nassr by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Shabab heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Nassr have managed 18W 6D 4L from their last 28 home games — 2.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Shabab's away record stands at 9W 7D 12L across their last 28 away games, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.60 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.47 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
Al-Nassr (Home) vs Al Shabab (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al Shabab Form FAQs
What form are Al-Nassr and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 40W 9D 8L in their last 57 games (2.26 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 24W 11D 22L in their last 57 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al Shabab away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.14 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 7 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Al-Nassr have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Aug 2023, when Al-Nassr won Al-Nassr 4-0 Al Shabab.
Al-Nassr's record when hosting Al Shabab specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Al-Nassr
2
Draws
1
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al Shabab H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al Shabab?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Nassr have won 7, Al Shabab have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al Shabab last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 May 2026: Al Shabab 2-4 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al Shabab?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Al Shabab see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 68%, Al Shabab 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Al-Nassr) and 46% (Al Shabab). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Shabab in 36%; Al Shabab in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al Shabab Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Nassr and Al Shabab matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Al-Nassr's games and 43% of Al Shabab's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Nassr and Al Shabab matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Al-Nassr's matches and 46% of Al Shabab's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al Shabab matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 93% of Al-Nassr's recent matches and 57% of Al Shabab's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Nassr and Al Shabab share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al-Awwal Park, Regular Season - 24, as Al-Nassr and Al Shabab drew 2-2 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 2.06 xG and Al Shabab 1.32 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.30 / defence 0.94 against Al Shabab attack 1.07 / defence 1.05, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 54% | Draw 21% | Al Shabab 24%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 75%, Al Shabab 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Al Shabab's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.46. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Shabab (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.