Al Kholood 2-1 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al Kholood at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Kholood vs Al-Fateh encounter.

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Analysis

Al-Fateh make the trip to Ar-Rass Stadium to face Al Kholood in Pro League (matchday 24). The match kicks off on Thursday 6 March 2025 at 19:00 UK time.

Current Form

Al Kholood's record over their last 10 games: 6W 0D 4L (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Al Kholood have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Al-Fateh have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Al-Fateh away from home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form ledger tips toward Al Kholood. A 0.50 PPG lead over Al-Fateh (1.80 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Al Kholood, 0 for Al-Fateh and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Oct 2024, ended Al Kholood 1–1 Al-Fateh — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Al Kholood — key trading statistics (last 23 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).

Al-Fateh — key trading statistics (last 23 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Kholood 61% and Al-Fateh 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Kholood 56% | Al-Fateh 61%). Note also that Al-Fateh surrender HT leads in 60% of cases while Al Kholood recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Kholood 1.91 xG and Al-Fateh 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Kholood attack 0.963 / defence 1.082 | Al-Fateh attack 0.908 / defence 1.329. League average goals — home 1.495 / away 1.332. Al-Fateh's defence rating of 1.329 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Kholood's projected output up. Data: built from Al Kholood's last 23 games and Al-Fateh's last 57.

Result probabilities: Al Kholood 52% | Draw 22% | Al-Fateh 26%. Fair-value odds: Al Kholood 1.94 | Draw 4.49 | Al-Fateh 3.82. Al Kholood hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.91 / 1.31) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al Kholood as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Kholood if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 3.22 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al Kholood's last 10 home games and Al-Fateh's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Kholood 60% (last 10 home games) | Al-Fateh 50% (last 10 away games).

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