Al-Nassr 1-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Nassr face Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Nassr host Al-Hilal Saudi FC at Al Awal Park at King Saud University in Pro League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 1 November 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Nassr — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr at Al Awal Park at King Saud University this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have recorded 10W 0D 0L from 10 outings — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record: 9W 1D 0L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Hilal Saudi FC are 0.80 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 2.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al-Nassr, 3 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Nassr in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Nassr 67% and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Nassr 79% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.32 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.116 / defence 0.788 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.535 / defence 0.781. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.281. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence strength of 0.781 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.535 — the away xG of 1.55 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Al-Nassr's defence rating of 0.788 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Al-Nassr games / 42 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 32% | Draw 25% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 43%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 3.12 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Nassr 70% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Al Awal Park at King Saud University • Kick-off: Friday 1 Nov 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 32% | Draw 25% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Al-Nassr 1.32 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.116 / def 0.788 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.535 / def 0.781 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 1 November 2024 at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Nassr 1 - 1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 32% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Nassr 1W | Draws 2 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Nassr's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack versus Al-Nassr's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
32%
3.08
25%
4.04
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
2.87
1.55
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
3.08
32%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
21%
4.71
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
7%
14.52
11%
8.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.6 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.7 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.55 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, Al-Nassr have picked up 2.38 PPG on a 31W 7D 4L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form line: 39W 3D 0L from 42 games, 2.86 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Nassr.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Nassr have posted 2.24 PPG from 21 outings (14W 5D 2L).
On the road, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 19W 2D 0L from 21 away games — 2.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.83 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.95 scored and 0.69 conceded. Al-Nassr's scoring rate against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 31W 7D 4L in their last 42 games (2.38 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 39W 3D 0L in their last 42 (2.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.24 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.81 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 12 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Mar 2022, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Nassr's record when hosting Al-Hilal Saudi FC specifically: 0W 4D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al-Nassr
4
Draws
4
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 2, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Al-Nassr 1-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 67%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Al-Nassr and 76% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al-Nassr's games and 57% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Al-Nassr's matches and 76% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 95% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Awal Park at King Saud University, Regular Season - 9, as Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.32 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.55 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.12 / defence 0.79 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.53 / defence 0.78, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 32% | Draw 25% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 43%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 79%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.86 PPG against 2.38. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.71 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.