Al Kholood 1-0 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Kholood vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Al-Ettifaq travel to Ar-Rass Stadium to take on Al Kholood. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 May 2025, 17:20 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Kholood stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al Kholood at Ar-Rass Stadium this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Al Kholood are significantly better at Ar-Rass Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al-Ettifaq away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Ettifaq are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al Kholood, 0 for Al-Ettifaq and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Jan 2025, ended 3–2 with Al Kholood winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al Kholood trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Kholood 60% and Al-Ettifaq 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Kholood 57% | Al-Ettifaq 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Kholood 1.12 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Kholood attack 0.792 / defence 1.191 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.094 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.549 / away 1.436. Al Kholood's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 30 Al Kholood games / 64 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Kholood 22% | Draw 24% | Al-Ettifaq 54%. Fair-value odds: Al Kholood 4.55 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Ettifaq 1.85. Al-Ettifaq hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ettifaq at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Kholood 50% | Al-Ettifaq 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Kholood vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Ar-Rass Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025, 17:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Kholood 22% | Draw 24% | Al-Ettifaq 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Al Kholood 1.12 / Al-Ettifaq 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: Al Kholood attack 0.792 / def 1.191 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.094 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.549 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Al Kholood xG
Expected Goals
1.87
Al-Ettifaq xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Kholood vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al Kholood vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 17:20 on Saturday 10 May 2025 at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Kholood vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al Kholood 1 - 0 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al Kholood vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What competition is Al Kholood vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al Kholood vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Kholood vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al Kholood a 22% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 54% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Kholood vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al Kholood and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al Kholood vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (1 meetings): Al Kholood 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Ettifaq 0W.
What form are Al Kholood and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al Kholood (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Kholood's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Al-Ettifaq's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Al Kholood's defence, projects 1.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
22%
4.53
24%
4.24
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Al Kholood xG
Total xG
2.99
1.87
Al-Ettifaq xG
4.53
22%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
15%
6.49
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
3%
29.44
18%
5.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 9.4 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Kholood vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Al Kholood and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Al Kholood and 1.87 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Kholood vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Kholood's recent record stands at 9W 4D 17L from 30 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Al-Ettifaq, meanwhile, have gone 12W 7D 11L across 30 games — 1.43 PPG, with D-D-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Kholood on 1.03 PPG, Al-Ettifaq on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al Kholood have managed 6W 2D 7L from 15 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ettifaq's away record stands at 7W 6D 2L across 15 trips, a 1.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ettifaq come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Kholood are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.97 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.30 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Kholood have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Al-Ettifaq in 60%.
Last 30 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Kholood
Current Season
Al-Ettifaq
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Kholood and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al Kholood have gone 9W 4D 17L in their last 30 games (1.03 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 12W 7D 11L in their last 30 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Kholood at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Ettifaq's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Kholood at home: 1.33 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Kholood and Al-Ettifaq runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Ettifaq have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Al Kholood's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Al Kholood
0
Draws
2
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al-Ettifaq?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Kholood have won 2, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Kholood and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Al Kholood 1-2 Al-Ettifaq.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Kholood 53%, Al-Ettifaq 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Al Kholood) and 53% (Al-Ettifaq). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Kholood have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Kholood home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Kholood play Al-Ettifaq?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Al Kholood's games and 73% of Al-Ettifaq's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Kholood vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Al Kholood's matches and 53% of Al-Ettifaq's.
Do Al Kholood and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al Kholood have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Kholood defy the odds to beat Al-Ettifaq 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Kholood beat Al-Ettifaq 1-0 at Ar-Rass Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Kholood 1.12 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.87 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Ettifaq landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Kholood attack 0.79 / defence 1.19 against Al-Ettifaq attack 1.09 / defence 0.91, drawn from 30/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Kholood 22% | Draw 24% | Al-Ettifaq 54%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Al Kholood win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Kholood 57%, Al-Ettifaq 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Kholood's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Kholood 1.03 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Kholood win broke the near-deadlock. Al Kholood (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.