Al Kholood 1-0 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Kholood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Kholood and Al-Ahli Jeddah meet at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 15 January 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Kholood have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Kholood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Al Kholood have gone 0W 2D 4L this season (6 games, 0.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.33 lags behind their overall 0.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium this season.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's overall Pro League record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Al-Ahli Jeddah arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Al Kholood half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Al-Ahli Jeddah half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Kholood 64% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Kholood 57% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Kholood 0.99 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Kholood attack 0.868 / defence 1.405 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.081 / defence 0.833. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.487. Data: 14 Al Kholood games / 48 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Kholood 15% | Draw 19% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 66%. Fair-value odds: Al Kholood 6.67 | Draw 5.26 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.52. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (66%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ahli Jeddah at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.25 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Al Kholood 50% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Kholood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 Jan 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Kholood 15% | Draw 19% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 56% | xG Al Kholood 0.99 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.26 • Poisson strength factors: Al Kholood attack 0.868 / def 1.405 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.081 / def 0.833 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.487 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Al Kholood xG
Expected Goals
2.26
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
56%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Kholood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al Kholood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 15 January 2025 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Kholood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al Kholood 1 - 0 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al Kholood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Kholood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al Kholood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Kholood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al Kholood a 15% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 66% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Kholood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al Kholood and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al Kholood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Kholood and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al Kholood (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al Kholood's attack at 0.87x the league average against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack (1.08x) against Al Kholood's defence (1.41x) — and the away total comes out at 2.26.
These ratings are built from 14/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.8%), 1-2 (9.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
15%
6.61
19%
5.32
66%
1.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Al Kholood xG
Total xG
3.25
2.26
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
6.61
15%
Home win
5.32
19%
Draw
1.51
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
10%
9.57
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
2%
63.23
25%
4.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 1.9 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Kholood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Al Kholood and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Al Kholood and 2.26 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Kholood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 14 outings, Al Kholood have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 3W 4D 7L record — L-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al Kholood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's form line: 8W 2D 4L from 14 games, 1.86 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the form team by 0.93 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Kholood.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al Kholood have posted 0.33 PPG from 6 outings (0W 2D 4L). That actually lags their 0.93 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Kholood are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 1.64 scored and 0.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Kholood have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Kholood
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Kholood and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al Kholood have gone 3W 4D 7L in their last 14 games (0.93 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 8W 2D 4L in their last 14 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Kholood at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Kholood at home: 0.33 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Al Kholood or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Kholood have kept a clean sheet in 7% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since January 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4-1 on 17 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Kholood have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ahli Jeddah — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Al Kholood
0
Draws
3
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 5 meetings on record, Al Kholood have won 2, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Kholood and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Al Kholood 3-1 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al Kholood and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Kholood 50%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Al Kholood) and 33% (Al-Ahli Jeddah).
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 33%; Al Kholood have failed to score in 50% of games; Al-Ahli Jeddah in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Kholood home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Kholood play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al Kholood's recent matches and 33% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Kholood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Al Kholood's recent games and 33% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Kholood and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al Kholood have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Kholood defy the odds to beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Kholood beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-0 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Kholood 0.99 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.26 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Ahli Jeddah landed 2.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Kholood attack 0.87 / defence 1.41 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.08 / defence 0.83, drawn from 14/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Kholood 15% | Draw 19% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 66%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a Al Kholood win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Kholood 57%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Kholood's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 0.93. Form was overturned, with Al Kholood winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Kholood (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.