Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Qadisiyah FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Qadisiyah FC (69%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Khaleej Saihat face Al-Qadisiyah FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Al-Qadisiyah FC travel to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to take on Al Khaleej Saihat. The game is scheduled for Friday 28 May 2027, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Khaleej Saihat stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al Khaleej Saihat have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Khaleej Saihat's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Qadisiyah FC — All Games: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Qadisiyah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing away from home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Qadisiyah FC are 2.30 PPG ahead (2.70 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Khaleej Saihat register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better historical record — 3 wins from 4 previous contests against 0 for Al Khaleej Saihat.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2026, ended 0–1 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.
It is worth noting that Al-Qadisiyah FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Al Khaleej Saihat trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Al-Qadisiyah FC trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Khaleej Saihat 60% and Al-Qadisiyah FC 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Khaleej Saihat 62% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 0.71 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.726 / defence 1.197 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.408 / defence 0.733. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.286. Al Khaleej Saihat's attack strength of 0.726 is below the league average — the 0.71 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence strength of 0.733 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Qadisiyah FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.408 — the away xG of 2.17 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 Al Khaleej Saihat games / 40 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 9% | Draw 22% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 69%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 11.11 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.45. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (69%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Qadisiyah FC at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Al Khaleej Saihat 60% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Qadisiyah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 28 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 9% | Draw 22% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 69% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 47% | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 0.71 / Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.17 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.726 / def 1.197 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.408 / def 0.733 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
2.17
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
47%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 28 May 2027 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Qadisiyah FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Qadisiyah FC part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 9% chance of winning, Al-Qadisiyah FC a 69% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Qadisiyah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Qadisiyah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Record (4 meetings): Al Khaleej Saihat 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 3W.
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Qadisiyah FC in?
Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Khaleej Saihat's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.71. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack versus Al Khaleej Saihat's defence, projects 2.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 13.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.0%), 1-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
9%
11.25
22%
4.50
69%
1.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
0 – 3
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
2.88
2.17
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
11.25
9%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
1.45
69%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
11%
8.74
49%
2.04
Win to Nil
1%
98.32
34%
2.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 12.2 | 13.2 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.2 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 8.7 | 9.4 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 1.4 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 2.17 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Khaleej Saihat come into this having played 40 games, going 10W 11D 19L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Qadisiyah FC sit at 2.30 PPG from 40 outings (28W 8D 4L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Qadisiyah FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.28 PPG clear of Al Khaleej Saihat — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al Khaleej Saihat's home form reads 6W 4D 10L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Qadisiyah FC have taken 2.35 points per game from 20 outings (15W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Al-Qadisiyah FC are on 2.40 scored and 0.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Khaleej Saihat have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Al-Qadisiyah FC in 65%.
Last 40 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Early Season
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Qadisiyah FC in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 10W 11D 19L in their last 40 games (1.02 PPG), while Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 28W 8D 4L in their last 40 (2.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Khaleej Saihat at home or Al-Qadisiyah FC away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 1.10 PPG; Al-Qadisiyah FC away: 2.35 PPG.
Have Al Khaleej Saihat or Al-Qadisiyah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Khaleej Saihat have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Qadisiyah FC runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 3 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Qadisiyah FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Al Khaleej Saihat's record when hosting Al-Qadisiyah FC specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Al Khaleej Saihat
1
Draws
3
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 0, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Qadisiyah FC last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2026, when Al Khaleej Saihat 0-1 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Khaleej Saihat 45%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Al Khaleej Saihat and 70% for Al-Qadisiyah FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Khaleej Saihat have failed to score in 45% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al-Qadisiyah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Khaleej Saihat play Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of Al Khaleej Saihat's games and 70% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Qadisiyah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Al Khaleej Saihat's matches and 70% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Qadisiyah FC tend to score early?
Al Khaleej Saihat have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.