Al Khaleej Saihat 1-2 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.

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Analysis

Al-Ettifaq make the trip to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to face Al Khaleej Saihat in Pro League (matchday 13). The match kicks off on Saturday 7 December 2024 at 12:55 UK time.

Form

Al Khaleej Saihat (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

At home, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.60 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Al-Ettifaq have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Al-Ettifaq away from home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form ledger tips toward Al Khaleej Saihat. A 1.00 PPG lead over Al-Ettifaq (1.60 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Al-Ettifaq edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Feb 2024, ended Al Khaleej Saihat 0–2 Al-Ettifaq — a Al-Ettifaq win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Al Khaleej Saihat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Al-Ettifaq goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Khaleej Saihat 52% versus Al-Ettifaq 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 46% | Al-Ettifaq 37%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al Khaleej Saihat surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Al-Ettifaq have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 1.34 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.125 / defence 0.941 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.892 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.283. Data: built from Al Khaleej Saihat's last 46 games and Al-Ettifaq's last 46.

Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 43% | Draw 27% | Al-Ettifaq 30%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 2.34 | Draw 3.67 | Al-Ettifaq 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al Khaleej Saihat as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Khaleej Saihat if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Khaleej Saihat 40% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ettifaq 50% (last 10 away games).

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