Al-Ettifaq 0-4 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Ittihad FC make the trip to EGO Stadium to face Al-Ettifaq in Pro League (matchday 12). The match kicks off on Saturday 30 November 2024 at 14:25 UK time.
Form
Al-Ettifaq (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Al-Ettifaq have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al-Ittihad FC's record over their last 10 games: 9W 0D 1L (2.70 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al-Ittihad FC away from home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Al-Ittihad FC are the stronger side — 1.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.70 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Al-Ettifaq, 2 for Al-Ittihad FC and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 10 May 2024, ended Al-Ettifaq 5–0 Al-Ittihad FC — a Al-Ettifaq win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Al-Ettifaq half-time and goal-timing data (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Al-Ittihad FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 44% versus Al-Ittihad FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 36% | Al-Ittihad FC 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 0.85 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.716 / defence 1.204 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.087 / defence 0.856. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.209. Al-Ettifaq's attack rating of 0.716 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.85. Al-Ettifaq's defence rating of 1.204 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Ittihad FC's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Ettifaq's last 45 games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 45.
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 20% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad FC 55%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 4.97 | Draw 3.97 | Al-Ittihad FC 1.83. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (55%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad FC are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Ettifaq 30% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ittihad FC 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, matchday 12 | Venue: EGO Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 November 2024 at 14:25 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 20% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad FC 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Al-Ettifaq 0.85 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.716 / def 1.204 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.087 / def 0.856 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Al-Ittihad FC xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC FAQs
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 14:25 UK time on Saturday 30 November 2024 at EGO Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ettifaq 0 - 4 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at EGO Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Pro League fixture (matchday 12) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 20% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 55% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Ettifaq's attack rating (0.72) and Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 0.85 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad FC's attack (1.09x) against Al-Ettifaq's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from Al-Ettifaq's last 45 games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.4%), 0-2 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
20%
4.97
25%
3.97
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
0 – 2
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.43
1.58
Al-Ittihad FC xG
4.97
20%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
21%
4.87
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
4%
24.21
23%
4.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 13.9 | 11.0 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.58 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Ettifaq's recent record stands at 15W 15D 15L from 45 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five.
Al-Ittihad FC, meanwhile, have gone 26W 6D 13L across 45 games — 1.87 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad FC by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ettifaq heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Ettifaq have managed 7W 7D 8L from their last 22 home games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ittihad FC's away record stands at 11W 4D 7L across their last 22 away games, a 1.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 1.98 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC in 60%.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al-Ettifaq (Home) vs Al-Ittihad FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC Form FAQs
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 15W 15D 15L in their last 45 games (1.33 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 26W 6D 13L in their last 45 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.27 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC, the earliest from June 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 20 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Al-Ittihad FC have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won Al-Ittihad FC 0-5 Al-Ettifaq on 10 May 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ettifaq have gone 0W 1D 5L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al-Ittihad FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al-Ettifaq
2
Draws
6
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, Al-Ittihad FC have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 October 2026: Al-Ettifaq 1-4 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 50%, Al-Ittihad FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Al-Ettifaq) and 54% (Al-Ittihad FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC in 41%; Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 50% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 54% of Al-Ittihad FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 68% of Al-Ittihad FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ittihad FC run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Al-Ettifaq.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Ettifaq 0-4 at EGO Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 0.85 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.58 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Al-Ittihad FC outscored their 1.58 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.72 / defence 1.20 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.09 / defence 0.86, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 20% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad FC 55%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 36%, Al-Ittihad FC 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.33. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.