Al-Ittihad FC 1-1 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (72%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ittihad FC face Al Okhdood.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Ittihad FC host Al Okhdood at Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City in Pro League, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 March 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ittihad FC — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 10W 0D 0L at Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 3.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — Al-Ittihad FC are significantly better at Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Okhdood stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Okhdood's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
On current form, Al-Ittihad FC have the edge — a 1.60 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
Al-Ittihad FC hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 3 previous encounters compared to 0 for Al Okhdood, with 0 draws in between.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2024, ended 2–1 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
The historical record gives Al-Ittihad FC a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ittihad FC in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Al Okhdood in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 66% versus Al Okhdood 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 68% | Al Okhdood 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 2.68 xG and Al Okhdood 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.581 / defence 0.901 | Al Okhdood attack 0.845 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.350. Al-Ittihad FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.581 — their λ of 2.68 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 56 Al-Ittihad FC games / 56 Al Okhdood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 72% | Draw 16% | Al Okhdood 12%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.39 | Draw 6.25 | Al Okhdood 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (72%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.71. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.71 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.68 / 1.03) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad FC are the pick at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 80% | Al Okhdood 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Okhdood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Mar 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 72% | Draw 16% | Al Okhdood 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 60% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 2.68 / Al Okhdood 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.581 / def 0.901 | Al Okhdood attack 0.845 / def 1.123 | league avg home 1.512 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.68
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Al Okhdood xG
60%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Okhdood kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Okhdood kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 2 March 2025 at Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Okhdood?
Al-Ittihad FC 1 - 1 Al Okhdood.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Okhdood being played?
The match is being played at Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Okhdood part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Okhdood is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Okhdood?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 72% chance of winning, Al Okhdood a 12% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Okhdood?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al Okhdood will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Okhdood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Okhdood?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 3W | Draws 0 | Al Okhdood 0W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Okhdood in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Al Okhdood (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Ittihad FC's attack at 1.58x the league average against Al Okhdood's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 2.68 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Okhdood's attack versus Al-Ittihad FC's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (8.8%), 3-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
72%
1.38
16%
6.44
12%
8.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.68
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
3.71
1.03
Al Okhdood xG
1.38
72%
Home win
6.44
16%
Draw
8.31
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
7%
14.64
Win to Nil
26%
3.86
1%
121.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Okhdood?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Okhdood expected to score?
The model projects 2.68 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.03 for Al Okhdood, a combined total of 3.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Okhdood?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 56 outings, Al-Ittihad FC have picked up 1.96 PPG on a 34W 8D 14L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Okhdood's form line: 13W 10D 33L from 56 games, 0.88 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Al Okhdood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ittihad FC are the form team by 1.08 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Okhdood.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 2.19 PPG from 27 outings (19W 2D 6L).
On the road, Al Okhdood have gone 6W 6D 15L from 27 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Al Okhdood are on 0.98 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al Okhdood
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Okhdood in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 34W 8D 14L in their last 56 games (1.96 PPG), while Al Okhdood have gone 13W 10D 33L in their last 56 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al Okhdood away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.19 PPG; Al Okhdood away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Ittihad FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Aug 2025, when Al-Ittihad FC won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ittihad FC's record when hosting Al Okhdood specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Al-Ittihad FC
1
Draws
0
Al Okhdood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Okhdood?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, Al Okhdood have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al Okhdood last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 Al Okhdood.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Okhdood?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 78%, Al Okhdood 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for Al-Ittihad FC and 48% for Al Okhdood. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Okhdood in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al Okhdood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al Okhdood?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Al-Ittihad FC's games and 44% of Al Okhdood's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Okhdood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of Al-Ittihad FC's matches and 48% of Al Okhdood's.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al Okhdood tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Al Okhdood in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ittihad FC and Al Okhdood share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City, Regular Season - 23, as Al-Ittihad FC and Al Okhdood drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 2.68 xG and Al Okhdood 1.03 xG, a combined 3.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.58 / defence 0.90 against Al Okhdood attack 0.84 / defence 1.12, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 72% | Draw 16% | Al Okhdood 12%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 72%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 68%, Al Okhdood 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Al Okhdood's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.48 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.