Al-Ittihad FC 3-4 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium plays host to Al-Ittihad FC versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Friday 1 September 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ittihad FC have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Al-Ittihad FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ittihad FC's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 games at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 9 clean sheets from 10 home games (90%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's overall Pro League record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.50 vs 2.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in just 10% of their games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
H2H History
Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 4 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Ittihad FC — key trading statistics (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 68% of the time.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC — key trading statistics (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 29% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 59% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.17 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.193 / defence 0.694 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.412 / defence 0.794. League average goals — home 1.229 / away 1.305. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence strength of 0.794 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.412 — the away xG of 1.28 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating of 0.694 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 34 Al-Ittihad FC games / 34 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 33% | Draw 29% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Al-Ittihad FC 10% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 1 Sep 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 33% | Draw 29% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.17 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.193 / def 0.694 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.412 / def 0.794 | league avg home 1.229 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 1 September 2023 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Ittihad FC 3 - 4 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 33% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Ittihad FC's attack at 1.19x the league average against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack (1.41x) against Al-Ittihad FC's defence (0.69x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
33%
3.04
29%
3.50
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
2.44
1.28
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
9%
10.91
12%
8.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.1 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.5 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.28 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Ittihad FC's recent record stands at 26W 6D 2L from 34 games, a 2.47 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC, meanwhile, have gone 20W 9D 5L across 34 games — 2.03 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad FC by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Hilal Saudi FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Ittihad FC have managed 13W 2D 1L from 16 games — 2.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record stands at 9W 4D 3L across 16 trips, a 1.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 2.12 goals scored and 0.38 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 1.88 scored and 0.91 conceded. Al-Ittihad FC's scoring rate against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 68% of their games; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Early Season
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 26W 6D 2L in their last 34 games (2.47 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 20W 9D 5L in their last 34 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.56 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 1.94 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 68% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won 4-1 on 22 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hilal Saudi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al-Ittihad FC
2
Draws
7
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 1, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1-1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 12% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 31% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 50% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 81% of their matches; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 12% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 31% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent games and 50% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Hilal Saudi FC edge out Al-Ittihad FC 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Ittihad FC 3-4 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.17 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.28 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Hilal Saudi FC outscored their 1.28 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.19 / defence 0.69 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.41 / defence 0.79, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 33% | Draw 29% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 38%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 59%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 68% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.47 PPG against 2.03. Form was overturned, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.