Al-Ittihad FC 1-0 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Al-Ittihad FC welcome Al-Ahli Jeddah to King Abdullah Sports City in Pro League (matchday 9). Kick-off is Thursday 31 October 2024 at 18:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Al-Ittihad FC — last 10 games: 8W 0D 2L, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

At home, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.

On current form, Al-Ittihad FC have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Al-Ittihad FC have won 2, Al-Ahli Jeddah 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Apr 2024, ended Al-Ittihad FC 0–1 Al-Ahli Jeddah — a Al-Ahli Jeddah win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Al-Ittihad FC trading profile (last 42 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.

Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (last 42 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 64% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 69% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.94 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.654 / defence 1.014 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.013 / defence 0.795. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.307. Al-Ittihad FC carry an above-average attack rating of 1.654 — their 1.94 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ahli Jeddah bring a tight defence (rating 0.795, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Al-Ittihad FC's projected output down. Data: built from Al-Ittihad FC's last 42 games and Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 42.

Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 52% | Draw 22% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 26%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.94 | Draw 4.54 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.78. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.94 / 1.34) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.28 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Ittihad FC's last 10 home games and Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Ittihad FC 80% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% (last 10 away games).

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