Al-Fateh 1-1 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Al-Fayha travel to Al Fateh Club Stadium to take on Al-Fateh. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 November 2024, 14:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fateh stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Al Fateh Club Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Al-Fateh are significantly better at Al Fateh Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Fayha — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fayha have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Fateh at 0.70 PPG versus Al-Fayha's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Fateh register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Al-Fayha in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Al-Fayha, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Al-Fateh.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Al-Fayha have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Al-Fateh trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Al-Fayha trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fateh 74% and Al-Fayha 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 64% | Al-Fayha 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.50 xG and Al-Fayha 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.987 / defence 1.215 | Al-Fayha attack 0.808 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.274. Data: 42 Al-Fateh games / 42 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 43% | Draw 25% | Al-Fayha 32%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Fayha 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fateh at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 80% | Al-Fayha 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Al Fateh Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Nov 2024, 14:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 43% | Draw 25% | Al-Fayha 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Al-Fateh 1.50 / Al-Fayha 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.987 / def 1.215 | Al-Fayha attack 0.808 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Al-Fayha xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 14:35 on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha?
Al-Fateh 1 - 1 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 43% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Fateh 0W | Draws 3 | Al-Fayha 3W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Al-Fayha (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Fateh's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Al-Fayha's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
43%
2.33
25%
3.94
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.75
1.25
Al-Fayha xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
12%
8.15
7%
14.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.0 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.25 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fateh's recent record stands at 13W 10D 19L from 42 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fayha, meanwhile, have gone 12W 14D 16L across 42 games — 1.19 PPG, with D-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fateh on 1.17 PPG, Al-Fayha on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Fateh have managed 7W 6D 8L from 21 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fayha's away record stands at 7W 6D 8L across 21 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.19 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 13W 10D 19L in their last 42 games (1.17 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 12W 14D 16L in their last 42 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.29 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Fayha have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 May 2023, when Al-Fayha won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Al-Fayha specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Al-Fateh
5
Draws
5
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 0, Al-Fayha have won 5, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Al-Fayha 2-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Fateh at 67%, Al-Fayha at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Al-Fateh) and 67% (Al-Fayha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al-Fayha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al-Fateh's games and 71% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Al-Fateh's matches and 67% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha finished level at 1-1 at Al Fateh Club Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.50 xG and Al-Fayha 1.25 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 0.99 / defence 1.22 against Al-Fayha attack 0.81 / defence 1.00, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 43% | Draw 25% | Al-Fayha 32%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 64%, Al-Fayha 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 1.17 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.