Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-2 Al-Qadisiyah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Hilal Saudi FC host Al-Qadisiyah FC at Kingdom Arena in Pro League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 September 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Hilal Saudi FC — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Kingdom Arena, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kingdom Arena.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al-Qadisiyah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 2.10 PPG versus Al-Qadisiyah FC's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 1, Al-Qadisiyah FC 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2025, ended 2–0 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 63% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 74% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.83 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.270 / defence 0.771 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.935 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.514. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.270 — their λ of 1.83 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence rating of 0.771 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 35 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 35 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 55% | Draw 23% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 22%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Kingdom Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Sep 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 55% | Draw 23% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 56% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.83 / Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.270 / def 0.771 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.935 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.514 / away 1.514 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 13 September 2025 at Kingdom Arena.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2 - 2 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC being played?
The match is being played at Kingdom Arena.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 55% chance of winning, Al-Qadisiyah FC a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 1W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
55%
1.83
23%
4.37
22%
4.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
2.92
1.09
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
4.44
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
16%
6.23
Win to Nil
18%
5.45
4%
27.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 10.8 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.09 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent record stands at 24W 6D 5L from 35 games, a 2.23 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Qadisiyah FC, meanwhile, have gone 22W 5D 8L across 35 games — 2.03 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Hilal Saudi FC on 2.23 PPG, Al-Qadisiyah FC on 2.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have managed 13W 2D 2L from 17 games — 2.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record stands at 8W 3D 6L across 17 trips, a 1.59 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Qadisiyah FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.77 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Al-Qadisiyah FC are on 1.60 scored and 0.91 conceded. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's scoring rate against Al-Qadisiyah FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Al-Qadisiyah FC in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Early Season
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 24W 6D 5L in their last 35 games (2.23 PPG), while Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 22W 5D 8L in their last 35 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al-Qadisiyah FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.41 PPG; Al-Qadisiyah FC away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Qadisiyah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 29 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's record when hosting Al-Qadisiyah FC specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2
Draws
1
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 1, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC last play each other?
They last met on 29 January 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 53%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 47% for Al-Qadisiyah FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 65% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Al-Qadisiyah FC in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al-Qadisiyah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 47% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's matches and 47% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC finished level at 2-2 at Kingdom Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.83 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.09 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al-Qadisiyah FC outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.27 / defence 0.77 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.95, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 55% | Draw 23% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 22%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 74%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.23 PPG, Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.