Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1-1 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Hilal Saudi FC face Al-Ittihad FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kingdom Arena plays host to Al-Hilal Saudi FC versus Al-Ittihad FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Saturday 21 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's overall Pro League record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: D D D W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Kingdom Arena, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Ittihad FC (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's 2.40 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Al-Ittihad FC's 1.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Hilal Saudi FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al-Ittihad FC in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Across 9 previous meetings, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the stronger side on paper — 7 victories to 1, with 1 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2025, ended 2–0 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Al-Hilal Saudi FC half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Al-Ittihad FC half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 62% and Al-Ittihad FC 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 73% | Al-Ittihad FC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.01 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.353 / defence 0.661 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.228 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.400. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.353 — their λ of 2.01 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ittihad FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.228 — the away xG of 1.14 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence rating of 0.661 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 55 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 57% | Draw 22% | Al-Ittihad FC 21%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Ittihad FC 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% | Al-Ittihad FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Kingdom Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 57% | Draw 22% | Al-Ittihad FC 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 59% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.01 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.353 / def 0.661 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.228 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Al-Ittihad FC xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Kingdom Arena.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1 - 1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Kingdom Arena.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 57% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (9 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 7W | Draws 1 | Al-Ittihad FC 1W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack at 1.35x the league average against Al-Ittihad FC's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 2.01 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad FC's attack (1.23x) against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence (0.66x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
57%
1.75
22%
4.52
21%
4.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
2 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
3.15
1.14
Al-Ittihad FC xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
4.86
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
13%
7.49
Win to Nil
18%
5.44
3%
36.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.14 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent record stands at 39W 11D 5L from 55 games, a 2.33 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC, meanwhile, have gone 37W 9D 9L across 55 games — 2.18 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.33 PPG for Al-Hilal Saudi FC against 2.18 for Al-Ittihad FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have managed 21W 4D 2L from 27 games — 2.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ittihad FC's away record stands at 14W 8D 5L across 27 trips, a 1.85 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.73 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 2.09 scored and 1.11 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Al-Ittihad FC in 64%.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 39W 11D 5L in their last 55 games (2.33 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 37W 9D 9L in their last 55 (2.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.48 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 1.85 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won 4-1 on 22 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ittihad FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2
Draws
1
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7, Al-Ittihad FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1-1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 56%, Al-Ittihad FC 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 59% for Al-Ittihad FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al-Ittihad FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's games and 70% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's matches and 59% of Al-Ittihad FC's.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC finished level at 1-1 at Kingdom Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.01 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.14 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.35 / defence 0.66 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.23 / defence 1.00, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 57% | Draw 22% | Al-Ittihad FC 21%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 73%, Al-Ittihad FC 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.33 PPG, Al-Ittihad FC 2.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.81 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.