Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Hilal Saudi FC face Al-Fayha.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha meet at Kingdom Arena in Pro League, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 11 February 2027 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's overall Pro League record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al-Hilal Saudi FC haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Kingdom Arena this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kingdom Arena.
Al-Fayha have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Fayha haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fayha have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.50 in Al-Hilal Saudi FC's favour (2.60 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had the better of this match-up — 7 wins from 10 meetings, with Al-Fayha managing just 1 victories and 2 draws shared.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2026, ended 1–0 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
The historical record gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a meaningful edge here — 7 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Hilal Saudi FC — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Al-Fayha — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 53% versus Al-Fayha 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 59% | Al-Fayha 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.06 xG and Al-Fayha 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.191 / defence 0.799 | Al-Fayha attack 0.906 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.389. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence rating of 0.799 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 34 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 34 Al-Fayha games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 61% | Draw 22% | Al-Fayha 17%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Fayha 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 40% | Al-Fayha 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Kingdom Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 11 Feb 2027, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 61% | Draw 22% | Al-Fayha 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 56% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.06 / Al-Fayha 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.191 / def 0.799 | Al-Fayha attack 0.906 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.589 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (61%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Al-Fayha xG
56%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha is scheduled to kick off at 20:00 on Thursday 11 February 2027 at Kingdom Arena.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Kingdom Arena.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 61% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha?
Record (10 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 7W | Draws 2 | Al-Fayha 1W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack at 1.19x the league average against Al-Fayha's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 2.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (0.91x) against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
61%
1.64
22%
4.59
17%
5.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
3.06
1.00
Al-Fayha xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
5.85
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
13%
7.83
Win to Nil
22%
4.47
2%
45.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.6 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.00 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Hilal Saudi FC come into this having played 34 games, going 25W 9D 0L for 2.47 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W. Al-Hilal Saudi FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Al-Fayha sit at 1.12 PPG from 34 outings (10W 8D 16L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five. Al-Fayha haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.35 PPG clear of Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home form reads 13W 4D 0L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fayha have taken 0.82 points per game from 17 outings (4W 2D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.21 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Pre-Season
Al-Fayha
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 25W 9D 0L in their last 34 games (2.47 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 10W 8D 16L in their last 34 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.53 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 21 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 3-0 on 18 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2
Draws
1
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7, Al-Fayha have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Al-Fayha 0-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 76% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 47%, Al-Fayha 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 65% for Al-Fayha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Al-Fayha in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al-Fayha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 53% of Al-Fayha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's matches and 65% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.