Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4-1 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (74%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Hilal Saudi FC face Al-Fayha.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha meet at Kingdom Arena in Pro League, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 22 January 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's overall Pro League record this term: 10W 0D 0L from 10 games (3.00 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 games at Kingdom Arena this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kingdom Arena.
Al-Fayha have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fayha have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 2.40 in Al-Hilal Saudi FC's favour (3.00 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 7 meetings, with Al-Fayha managing just 1 victories and 1 draws shared.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2025, ended 2–0 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
The historical record gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Hilal Saudi FC — key trading statistics (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
Al-Fayha — key trading statistics (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 63% versus Al-Fayha 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 76% | Al-Fayha 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.60 xG and Al-Fayha 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.348 / defence 0.774 | Al-Fayha attack 0.755 / defence 1.261. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.488. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.348 — their λ of 2.60 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Fayha bring a strong defensive rating of 1.261 — this is suppressing Al-Hilal Saudi FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence rating of 0.774 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 49 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 74% | Draw 16% | Al-Fayha 10%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.35 | Draw 6.25 | Al-Fayha 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (74%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.47 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% | Al-Fayha 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Kingdom Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 22 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 74% | Draw 16% | Al-Fayha 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 54% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.60 / Al-Fayha 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.348 / def 0.774 | Al-Fayha attack 0.755 / def 1.261 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.488 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.60
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Al-Fayha xG
54%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 17:30 on Thursday 22 January 2026 at Kingdom Arena.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4 - 1 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Kingdom Arena.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 74% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 10% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha?
Record (7 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 5W | Draws 1 | Al-Fayha 1W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Al-Fayha (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack at 1.35x the league average against Al-Fayha's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 2.60 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (0.76x) against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 3-0 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
74%
1.35
16%
6.28
10%
10.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
3 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.60
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
3.47
0.87
Al-Fayha xG
1.35
74%
Home win
6.28
16%
Draw
10.08
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
7%
13.45
Win to Nil
31%
3.22
1%
135.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 9.1 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 2.60 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 0.87 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Hilal Saudi FC come into this having played 49 games, going 36W 8D 5L for 2.37 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Fayha sit at 1.02 PPG from 49 outings (11W 17D 21L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.35 PPG clear of Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home form reads 20W 3D 2L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fayha have taken 0.88 points per game from 25 outings (5W 7D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.76 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 0.82 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 36W 8D 5L in their last 49 games (2.37 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 11W 17D 21L in their last 49 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.52 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 20 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 3-0 on 18 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
1
Draws
1
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 8, Al-Fayha have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 20 August 2026, when Al-Fayha 0-3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 68% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60%, Al-Fayha 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 60% for Al-Fayha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 64% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Al-Fayha in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al-Fayha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 44% of Al-Fayha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's matches and 60% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 96% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Hilal Saudi FC run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Al-Fayha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Fayha 4-1 at Kingdom Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.60 xG and Al-Fayha 0.87 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.35 / defence 0.77 against Al-Fayha attack 0.76 / defence 1.26, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 74% | Draw 16% | Al-Fayha 10%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 74%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 76%, Al-Fayha 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.37 PPG against 1.02. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.92 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.