Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1-1 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha meet at King Fahd International Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 August 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at King Fahd International Stadium this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Fayha have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al-Fayha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fayha have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Al-Hilal Saudi FC's favour (1.70 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, 1 for Al-Fayha and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.2 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2023, ended 2–0 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Hilal Saudi FC — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Al-Fayha — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 45% versus Al-Fayha 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 55% | Al-Fayha 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.54 xG and Al-Fayha 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.192 / defence 0.961 | Al-Fayha attack 0.914 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.383. Data: 31 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 31 Al-Fayha games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 45% | Draw 25% | Al-Fayha 30%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Fayha 3.33. Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% | Al-Fayha 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: King Fahd International Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Aug 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 45% | Draw 25% | Al-Fayha 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.54 / Al-Fayha 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.192 / def 0.961 | Al-Fayha attack 0.914 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Al-Fayha xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 19 August 2023 at King Fahd International Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1 - 1 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at King Fahd International Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 45% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2W | Draws 1 | Al-Fayha 1W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Al-Fayha (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack at 1.19x the league average against Al-Fayha's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (0.91x) against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
45%
2.23
25%
3.98
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
2.76
1.22
Al-Fayha xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
13%
7.51
6%
15.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.9 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.22 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Hilal Saudi FC come into this having played 31 games, going 18W 8D 5L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Fayha sit at 1.16 PPG from 31 outings (9W 9D 13L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fayha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.84 PPG clear of Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home form reads 9W 4D 2L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fayha have taken 1.07 points per game from 15 outings (4W 4D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.10 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Early Season
Al-Fayha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 18W 8D 5L in their last 31 games (2.00 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 9W 9D 13L in their last 31 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.07 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 21 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 3-0 on 18 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2
Draws
1
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7, Al-Fayha have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Al-Fayha 0-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60%, Al-Fayha 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC) and 47% (Al-Fayha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Al-Fayha in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al-Fayha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's games and 53% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's matches and 47% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha finished level at 1-1 at King Fahd International Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.54 xG and Al-Fayha 1.22 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.19 / defence 0.96 against Al-Fayha attack 0.91 / defence 0.95, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 45% | Draw 25% | Al-Fayha 30%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 55%, Al-Fayha 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.