Al-Fayha 0-0 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Fayha at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Al-Hazm travel to Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium to take on Al-Fayha. The game is scheduled for Friday 25 August 2023, 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Fayha — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Fayha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fayha at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hazm have recorded 0W 0D 2L from 2 outings — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Al-Hazm have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fayha are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.20 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al-Fayha, 1 for Al-Hazm and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2022, ended 1–3 with Al-Hazm winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.97 xG and Al-Hazm 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 1.138 / defence 0.945 | Al-Hazm attack 0.828 / defence 1.366. League average goals — home 1.267 / away 1.435. Al-Hazm bring a strong defensive rating of 1.366 — this is suppressing Al-Fayha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Al-Fayha games / 2 Al-Hazm games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 57% | Draw 22% | Al-Hazm 21%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Hazm 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Al-Fayha (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.8 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 60% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
On the Poisson output, Al-Fayha are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 25 Aug 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 57% | Draw 22% | Al-Hazm 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 58% | xG Al-Fayha 1.97 / Al-Hazm 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 1.138 / def 0.945 | Al-Hazm attack 0.828 / def 1.366 | league avg home 1.267 / away 1.435 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Al-Hazm xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 25 August 2023 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm?
Al-Fayha 0 - 0 Al-Hazm.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 57% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Fayha 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Hazm 1W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Al-Hazm (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Fayha's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Al-Hazm's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.97. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hazm's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
57%
1.76
22%
4.61
21%
4.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
3.09
1.12
Al-Hazm xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
4.69
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
14%
7.16
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
3%
33.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 10.0 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.12 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fayha's recent record stands at 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fayha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Hazm, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 2L across 2 games — 0.00 PPG, with L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hazm, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Fayha by 2.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Hazm heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fayha are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 0.50 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fayha have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Last 2 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Early Season
Al-Hazm
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al-Hazm specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al-Fayha
2
Draws
2
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 2, Al-Hazm have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Al-Hazm 2-0 Al-Fayha.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al-Hazm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Al-Fayha's games and 50% of Al-Hazm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 50% of Al-Hazm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Fayha's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm finished level at 0-0 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.97 xG and Al-Hazm 1.12 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Fayha fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Al-Hazm landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 1.14 / defence 0.94 against Al-Hazm attack 0.83 / defence 1.37, drawn from 32/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 57% | Draw 22% | Al-Hazm 21%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 50%, Al-Hazm 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Fayha arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Fayha managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Hazm conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.