Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3-1 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Hilal Saudi FC host Al-Fateh at Kingdom Arena in Pro League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 26 April 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC stand at 10W 0D 0L from 10 Pro League matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC at Kingdom Arena this season: 10W 0D 0L from 10 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kingdom Arena.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fateh have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fateh have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the edge — a 1.80 PPG advantage (3.00 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, 2 for Al-Fateh and 0 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2023, ended 2–0 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 79% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
Al-Fateh in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 46% versus Al-Fateh 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 58% | Al-Fateh 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.33 xG and Al-Fateh 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.523 / defence 0.673 | Al-Fateh attack 1.031 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.415. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.523 — their λ of 2.33 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence rating of 0.673 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 58 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 67% | Draw 19% | Al-Fateh 14%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.49 | Draw 5.26 | Al-Fateh 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (67%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.32 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 40% | Al-Fateh 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Kingdom Arena • Kick-off: Friday 26 Apr 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 67% | Draw 19% | Al-Fateh 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 57% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.33 / Al-Fateh 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.523 / def 0.673 | Al-Fateh attack 1.031 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.415 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Al-Fateh xG
57%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 26 April 2024 at Kingdom Arena.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3 - 1 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Kingdom Arena.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 67% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 14% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3W | Draws 0 | Al-Fateh 2W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Al-Fateh (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attacking strength (1.52x league average) is weighed against Al-Fateh's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.33. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
67%
1.49
19%
5.20
14%
7.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
3.32
0.98
Al-Fateh xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.20
19%
Draw
7.24
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
10%
10.31
Win to Nil
25%
3.99
1%
74.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.5 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 0.98 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have picked up 2.39 PPG on a 42W 10D 5L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fateh's form line: 24W 11D 22L from 57 games, 1.46 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the form team by 0.93 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Fateh.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 2.43 PPG from 28 outings (21W 5D 2L).
On the road, Al-Fateh have gone 13W 4D 11L from 28 away games — 1.54 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.40 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.67 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh in 61%.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al-Fateh
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 42W 10D 5L in their last 57 games (2.39 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 24W 11D 22L in their last 57 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.43 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Hilal Saudi FC go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Jan 2025, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 9-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
0
Draws
2
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 8, Al-Fateh have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Al-Fateh 0-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54%, Al-Fateh 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 79% for Al-Fateh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's games and 68% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's matches and 79% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al-Fateh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Fateh 3-1 at Kingdom Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.33 xG and Al-Fateh 0.98 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.52 / defence 0.67 against Al-Fateh attack 1.03 / defence 1.08, drawn from 57/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 67% | Draw 19% | Al-Fateh 14%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 58%, Al-Fateh 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 1.46. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.