Al-Hazm 2-0 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Fateh at 77% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh encounter.

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Analysis

Al-Fateh make the trip to Ar-Rass Stadium to face Al-Hazm in Pro League (matchday 16). The match kicks off on Thursday 7 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time.

Form

Al-Hazm (all games): 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Al-Hazm's home record over their last 7 home games: 1W 1D 5L (0.57 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 3.57 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Al-Fateh's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Al-Fateh have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Al-Fateh arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Al-Hazm's last 7 home games and Al-Fateh's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 71% of Al-Hazm's games and 70% of Al-Fateh's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Al-Hazm, 1 for Al-Fateh and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 18 Feb 2022, ended Al-Hazm 0–1 Al-Fateh — a Al-Fateh win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Al-Hazm goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 15 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.

Al-Fateh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 15 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Hazm 73% and Al-Fateh 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Hazm 67% | Al-Fateh 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.17 xG and Al-Fateh 3.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.817 / defence 1.939 | Al-Fateh attack 1.130 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.476. Al-Hazm's defence rating of 1.939 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Fateh's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Hazm's last 15 games and Al-Fateh's last 45.

Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 10% | Draw 13% | Al-Fateh 77%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 10.19 | Draw 7.67 | Al-Fateh 1.30. The model has a clear lean to Al-Fateh (77%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 82% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 4.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 82% — a total xG of 4.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.17 / 3.23) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fateh at 77% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

The Poisson model projects 4.40 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 82% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Hazm's last 7 home games and Al-Fateh's last 10 away games) averaging 4.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Hazm 71% (last 7 home games) | Al-Fateh 70% (last 10 away games).

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