Al-Hazm 0-1 Al Diriyah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hazm at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hazm vs Al Diriyah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Hazm host Al Diriyah at Al-Hazem Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 21 August 2026 at 16:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Hazm — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Hazm have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Hazm's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Al-Hazem Club Stadium this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Al-Hazm are significantly better at Al-Hazem Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Diriyah have recorded 0W 0D 1L from 1 outings — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Al Diriyah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Hazm carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.75 xG and Al Diriyah 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 1.008 / defence 1.006 | Al Diriyah attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.408. Data: 35 Al-Hazm games / 1 Al Diriyah games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 49% | Draw 27% | Al Diriyah 25%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Al Diriyah 4.00. Al-Hazm hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Hazm as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hazm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 1.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al Diriyah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Al-Hazem Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 21 Aug 2026, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 49% | Draw 27% | Al Diriyah 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Al-Hazm 1.75 / Al Diriyah 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 1.008 / def 1.006 | Al Diriyah attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.408 • Poisson stance: Al-Hazm (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Al Diriyah xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al Diriyah kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al Diriyah kicked off at 16:15 on Friday 21 August 2026 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hazm vs Al Diriyah?
Al-Hazm 0 - 1 Al Diriyah.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al Diriyah being played?
The match is being played at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al Diriyah part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al Diriyah is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al Diriyah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 49% chance of winning, Al Diriyah a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Hazm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al Diriyah?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al Diriyah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al Diriyah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al Diriyah?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al Diriyah in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Al Diriyah (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Hazm's attack rating (1.01) and Al Diriyah's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Diriyah's attack versus Al-Hazm's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hazm Win
49%
2.05
27%
3.76
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
2.96
1.20
Al Diriyah xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
17%
5.77
Win to Nil
15%
6.84
4%
23.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.0 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al Diriyah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al Diriyah expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 1.20 for Al Diriyah, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al Diriyah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Hazm's recent record stands at 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, a 3.00 PPG return, with W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hazm, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Diriyah, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 1L across 1 games — 0.00 PPG, with L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Diriyah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hazm by 3.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Diriyah heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Al-Hazm are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al Diriyah are on 0.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Al-Hazm's scoring rate against Al Diriyah's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Al Diriyah in 0%.
Last 1 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Early Season
Al Diriyah
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Al Diriyah in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Al Diriyah have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Hazm and Al Diriyah runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Al-Hazm
0
Draws
1
Al Diriyah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al Diriyah?
From 1 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 0, Al Diriyah have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al Diriyah last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Al-Hazm 0-1 Al Diriyah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Al Diriyah?
Al Diriyah have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al Diriyah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Al Diriyah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Al-Hazm's recent matches and 0% of Al Diriyah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hazm vs Al Diriyah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Al-Hazm's recent games and 0% of Al Diriyah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hazm and Al Diriyah tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al Diriyah in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Diriyah defy the odds to beat Al-Hazm 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Diriyah beat Al-Hazm 0-1 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 1.75 xG and Al Diriyah 1.20 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Hazm fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 1.01 / defence 1.01 against Al Diriyah attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 35/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 49% | Draw 27% | Al Diriyah 25%, with Al-Hazm to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Al Diriyah win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 100%, Al Diriyah 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hazm arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Al Diriyah winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Hazm managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Diriyah scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.