Al-Fayha 1-2 Al-Qadisiyah FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 32 as Al-Fayha welcome Al-Qadisiyah FC to King Abdullah Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 9 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Fayha — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al-Fayha's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing away from home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Qadisiyah FC — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Fayha register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Al-Fayha have won 1, Al-Qadisiyah FC 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2026, ended 0–5 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Fayha in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 45% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 45% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.46 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 1.039 / defence 0.940 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.441 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.453. Al-Qadisiyah FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.441 — the away xG of 1.97 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 65 Al-Fayha games / 65 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 28% | Draw 23% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 49%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 3.57 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.04. Al-Qadisiyah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.97) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.43 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 60% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 28% | Draw 23% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Al-Fayha 1.46 / Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.97 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 1.039 / def 0.940 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.441 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.515 / away 1.453 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.97
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 9 May 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Fayha 1 - 2 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 28% chance of winning, Al-Qadisiyah FC a 49% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Qadisiyah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Fayha 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 2W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Qadisiyah FC in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Fayha's attack at 1.04x the league average against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 1.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
28%
3.56
23%
4.32
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
2 – 1
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
3.43
1.97
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
3.56
28%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
14%
7.16
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
4%
25.48
11%
8.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.3 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.97 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fayha come into this having played 65 games, going 18W 20D 27L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-W.
On the other side, Al-Qadisiyah FC sit at 2.09 PPG from 65 outings (41W 13D 11L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-W across their last five.
Al-Qadisiyah FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.95 PPG clear of Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Fayha's home form reads 11W 12D 9L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Qadisiyah FC have taken 1.84 points per game from 32 outings (18W 5D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Al-Qadisiyah FC are on 1.95 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Current Season
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Qadisiyah FC in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 18W 20D 27L in their last 65 games (1.14 PPG), while Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 41W 13D 11L in their last 65 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al-Qadisiyah FC away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.41 PPG; Al-Qadisiyah FC away: 1.84 PPG.
Have Al-Fayha or Al-Qadisiyah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fayha and Al-Qadisiyah FC runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Qadisiyah FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jan 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al-Qadisiyah FC specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al-Fayha
0
Draws
3
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 1, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Qadisiyah FC last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Al-Fayha 1-2 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 44%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Al-Fayha) and 59% (Al-Qadisiyah FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Al-Qadisiyah FC in 31%; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Qadisiyah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 59% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 59% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Qadisiyah FC tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Qadisiyah FC edge out Al-Fayha 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al-Fayha 1-2 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.46 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.97 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 1.04 / defence 0.94 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.44 / defence 0.93, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 28% | Draw 23% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 49%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 45%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.