Al-Fayha 2-1 Al-Qadisiyah FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 27 as Al-Fayha welcome Al-Qadisiyah FC to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 April 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Fayha — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha's form when playing at home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 games at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Qadisiyah FC — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Al-Fayha have won 0, Al-Qadisiyah FC 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2024, ended 0–2 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al-Fayha in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 15% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 35% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Fayha 31% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 0.80 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.570 / defence 0.779 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.994 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.336. Al-Fayha's attack strength of 0.570 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Fayha's defence rating of 0.779 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 Al-Fayha games / 26 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 27% | Draw 33% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 40%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 3.70 | Draw 3.03 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.83 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 30% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Apr 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 27% | Draw 33% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Al-Fayha 0.80 / Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.570 / def 0.779 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.994 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 12 April 2025 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Fayha 2 - 1 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 27% chance of winning, Al-Qadisiyah FC a 40% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Qadisiyah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Fayha 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 1W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Qadisiyah FC in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Fayha's attack at 0.57x the league average against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 0.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
27%
3.66
33%
3.06
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
1.83
1.03
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
3.66
27%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.80
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
45%
2.23
Win to Nil
10%
10.31
18%
5.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.0 | 16.5 | 8.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.2 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.7%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.03 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fayha come into this having played 26 games, going 5W 11D 10L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-D. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Qadisiyah FC sit at 2.00 PPG from 26 outings (16W 4D 6L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Al-Qadisiyah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Qadisiyah FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Fayha's home form reads 2W 6D 5L across 13 games on their own ground, a 0.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Qadisiyah FC have taken 1.77 points per game from 13 outings (7W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fayha are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Al-Qadisiyah FC are on 1.46 scored and 0.85 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Qadisiyah FC in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 5W 11D 10L in their last 26 games (1.00 PPG), while Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 16W 4D 6L in their last 26 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al-Qadisiyah FC away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 0.92 PPG; Al-Qadisiyah FC away: 1.77 PPG.
Have Al-Fayha or Al-Qadisiyah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fayha and Al-Qadisiyah FC runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Qadisiyah FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jan 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al-Qadisiyah FC specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al-Fayha
0
Draws
3
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 1, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Qadisiyah FC last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Al-Fayha 1-2 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 31%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 15% for Al-Fayha and 54% for Al-Qadisiyah FC.
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Al-Qadisiyah FC in 46%; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 54% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Qadisiyah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 46% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 15% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 54% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Qadisiyah FC tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Fayha defy the odds to beat Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha beat Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-1 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 0.80 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.03 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Al-Fayha beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.57 / defence 0.78 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.99 / defence 0.99, drawn from 60/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 27% | Draw 33% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 40%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Al-Fayha win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 31%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Al-Fayha winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.54 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.