Al-Fayha 1-4 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Fayha face Al-Nassr.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 2 as Al-Fayha welcome Al-Nassr to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 27 August 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fayha have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Fayha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fayha's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Nassr — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Nassr have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Nassr's form when playing away from home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Al-Nassr's 2.40 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Al-Fayha's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Al-Nassr, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for Al-Fayha.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2024, ended 1–3 with Al-Nassr winning.
It is worth noting that Al-Nassr have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Al-Fayha trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Al-Nassr trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 63%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fayha 63% and Al-Nassr 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Fayha 57% | Al-Nassr 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.30 xG and Al-Nassr 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.995 / defence 1.021 | Al-Nassr attack 1.296 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.202. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack strength of 1.296 — the away xG of 1.59 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 35 Al-Fayha games / 35 Al-Nassr games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 31% | Draw 25% | Al-Nassr 44%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Nassr 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 60% | Al-Nassr 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 31% | Draw 25% | Al-Nassr 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Al-Fayha 1.30 / Al-Nassr 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.995 / def 1.021 | Al-Nassr attack 1.296 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Al-Nassr xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 27 August 2024 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr?
Al-Fayha 1 - 4 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 31% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Fayha 0W | Draws 2 | Al-Nassr 4W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Al-Nassr (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Fayha's attack at 0.99x the league average against Al-Nassr's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Nassr's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
31%
3.21
25%
4.07
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.89
1.59
Al-Nassr xG
3.21
31%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
20%
4.91
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
6%
15.74
12%
8.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.9 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.5 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.5 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.59 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 35 outings, Al-Fayha have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 11W 11D 13L record — D-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fayha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Nassr's form line: 26W 5D 4L from 35 games, 2.37 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Al-Nassr, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Nassr are the form team by 1.11 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Fayha.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Fayha have posted 1.12 PPG from 17 outings (4W 7D 6L).
On the road, Al-Nassr have gone 14W 1D 2L from 17 away games — 2.53 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.89 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fayha have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Al-Nassr in 69%.
Last 35 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Early Season
Al-Nassr
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 11W 11D 13L in their last 35 games (1.26 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 26W 5D 4L in their last 35 (2.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (2.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.12 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Nassr have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2022, when Al-Nassr won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al-Nassr specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Al-Fayha
2
Draws
8
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 0, Al-Nassr have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Al-Fayha 1-3 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 47%, Al-Nassr 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 47% for Al-Fayha and 82% for Al-Nassr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 65% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al-Nassr?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Al-Fayha's games and 65% of Al-Nassr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Al-Fayha's matches and 82% of Al-Nassr's.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Nassr run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Al-Fayha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al-Fayha 1-4 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.30 xG and Al-Nassr 1.59 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Al-Nassr outscored their 1.59 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.99 / defence 1.02 against Al-Nassr attack 1.30 / defence 0.94, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 31% | Draw 25% | Al-Nassr 44%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 57%, Al-Nassr 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.37 PPG against 1.26. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.94 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.