Al-Fayha vs Al-Faisaly FC – Pre-Match Analysis

📋

Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fayha vs Al-Faisaly FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Al-Faisaly FC make the trip to King Abdullah Sports City Stadium to face Al-Fayha in Pro League, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 14:55 UTC.

Form

Al-Fayha (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Fayha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Al-Fayha at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Al-Faisaly FC have collected 0.50 PPG across 6 Pro League outings this season: 0W 3D 3L. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Faisaly FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

On the road, Al-Faisaly FC have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 away fixtures this term (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Al-Fayha, 0.50 for Al-Faisaly FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Fayha have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Al-Faisaly FC in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Fayha lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Al-Fayha — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Al-Faisaly FC — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 67% versus Al-Faisaly FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 83% | Al-Faisaly FC 33%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.83 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 1.090 / defence 1.209 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.774 / defence 1.253. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.286. Al-Faisaly FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.253 — this is suppressing Al-Fayha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Al-Fayha games / 6 Al-Faisaly FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 50% | Draw 28% | Al-Faisaly FC 23%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Faisaly FC 4.35. Al-Fayha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Fayha are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 70% | Al-Faisaly FC 67% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights