Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Hazm at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Fateh club stadium plays host to Al-Fateh versus Al-Hazm in Pro League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Thursday 15 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Fateh have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Fateh have posted 2W 2D 6L at Al Fateh club stadium — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Al-Hazm (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Al-Fateh against 0.70 for Al-Hazm. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Al-Fateh 3W, Al-Hazm 2W, 2D.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2026, ended 3–2 with Al-Fateh winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Al-Hazm half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fateh 60% and Al-Hazm 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 49% | Al-Hazm 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.08 xG and Al-Hazm 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.778 / defence 1.352 | Al-Hazm attack 0.792 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.432. Al-Fateh's attack strength of 0.778 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 Al-Fateh games / 45 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 24% | Draw 31% | Al-Hazm 45%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 4.17 | Draw 3.23 | Al-Hazm 2.22. Al-Hazm hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hazm are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Hazm if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Fateh 40% | Al-Hazm 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Al Fateh club stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 15 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 24% | Draw 31% | Al-Hazm 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Al-Fateh 1.08 / Al-Hazm 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.778 / def 1.352 | Al-Hazm attack 0.792 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Al-Hazm (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Al-Hazm xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Thursday 15 April 2027 at Al Fateh club stadium.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh club stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 24% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 45% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Al-Hazm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm?
Record (7 meetings): Al-Fateh 3W | Draws 2 | Al-Hazm 2W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Al-Hazm (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Fateh's attack rating (0.78) and Al-Hazm's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Hazm's attack (0.79x) against Al-Fateh's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.7%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hazm Win
24%
4.16
31%
3.25
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.61
1.53
Al-Hazm xG
4.16
24%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
22%
4.64
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
5%
19.28
15%
6.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 11.3 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.53 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 45 outings, Al-Fateh have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 10W 13D 22L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hazm's form line: 13W 13D 19L from 45 games, 1.16 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-D. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for Al-Fateh against 1.16 for Al-Hazm. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Fateh have posted 1.18 PPG from 22 outings (7W 5D 10L).
On the road, Al-Hazm have gone 4W 8D 10L from 22 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 1.11 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Al-Hazm in 60%.
Last 45 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al-Hazm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 10W 13D 22L in their last 45 games (0.96 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 13W 13D 19L in their last 45 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.18 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 15 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fateh have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hazm — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Al-Fateh
2
Draws
2
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm?
From 7 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 3, Al-Hazm have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 15 October 2026, when Al-Hazm 2-3 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 59%, Al-Hazm 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Al-Fateh) and 54% (Al-Hazm).
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh have failed to score in 27% of games; Al-Hazm in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al-Hazm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Al-Fateh's games and 59% of Al-Hazm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 54% of Al-Hazm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.