Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Fateh club stadium plays host to Al-Fateh versus Al-Hazm in Pro League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Thursday 15 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Fateh have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Fateh have posted 3W 4D 3L at Al Fateh club stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Al-Fateh are significantly better at Al Fateh club stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Hazm (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Hazm have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Hazm's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Al-Fateh against 1.00 for Al-Hazm. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Al-Fateh 2W, Al-Hazm 2W, 2D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 6 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Al-Hazm half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 56% versus Al-Hazm 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 41% | Al-Hazm 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.32 xG and Al-Hazm 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.787 / defence 0.824 | Al-Hazm attack 1.031 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.362. Al-Fateh's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 1.32 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 38 Al-Fateh games / 38 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 38% | Draw 31% | Al-Hazm 31%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Al-Hazm 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fateh are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Fateh 40% | Al-Hazm 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Al Fateh club stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 15 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 38% | Draw 31% | Al-Hazm 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Al-Fateh 1.32 / Al-Hazm 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.787 / def 0.824 | Al-Hazm attack 1.031 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Al-Hazm xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Thursday 15 April 2027 at Al Fateh club stadium.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh club stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 38% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Fateh 2W | Draws 2 | Al-Hazm 2W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Al-Hazm (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Fateh's attack rating (0.79) and Al-Hazm's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Hazm's attack (1.03x) against Al-Fateh's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
38%
2.62
31%
3.21
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.47
1.16
Al-Hazm xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
12%
8.32
8%
12.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.8 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.16 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 39 outings, Al-Fateh have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 9W 13D 17L record — L-L-D-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fateh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Hazm's form line: 12W 11D 16L from 39 games, 1.21 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Al-Hazm, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for Al-Fateh against 1.21 for Al-Hazm. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Fateh have posted 1.37 PPG from 19 outings (7W 5D 7L).
On the road, Al-Hazm have gone 4W 7D 8L from 19 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 1.10 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Early Season
Al-Hazm
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 9W 13D 17L in their last 39 games (1.03 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 12W 11D 16L in their last 39 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.37 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fateh have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hazm — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al-Fateh
2
Draws
2
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 2, Al-Hazm have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Al-Fateh 1-1 Al-Hazm.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 58%, Al-Hazm 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Al-Fateh) and 58% (Al-Hazm).
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh have failed to score in 26% of games; Al-Hazm in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al-Hazm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Al-Fateh's games and 58% of Al-Hazm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 58% of Al-Hazm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.