Al-Fateh 1-2 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Fateh at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Al-Fayha travel to Al Fateh club stadium to take on Al-Fateh. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 August 2025, 16:55 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fateh stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Fateh haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Al-Fateh's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Al Fateh club stadium this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Fayha — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Fayha haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fayha have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Al-Fateh have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The previous 8 encounters between these sides heavily favour Al-Fayha, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Al-Fateh.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Al-Fayha have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Al-Fateh trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Al-Fayha trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 68% versus Al-Fayha 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 62% | Al-Fayha 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.84 xG and Al-Fayha 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.147 / defence 0.993 | Al-Fayha attack 0.865 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.495. Data: 34 Al-Fateh games / 34 Al-Fayha games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 50% | Draw 23% | Al-Fayha 27%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Fayha 3.70. Al-Fateh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
Al-Fayha lead the H2H ledger, but Al-Fateh carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fateh at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.12 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 80% | Al-Fayha 30% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Al Fateh club stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Aug 2025, 16:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 50% | Draw 23% | Al-Fayha 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Al-Fateh 1.84 / Al-Fayha 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 1.147 / def 0.993 | Al-Fayha attack 0.865 / def 1.101 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.495 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Al-Fayha xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 16:55 on Saturday 30 August 2025 at Al Fateh club stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha?
Al-Fateh 1 - 2 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh club stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 50% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 27% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha?
Record (8 meetings): Al-Fateh 0W | Draws 5 | Al-Fayha 3W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Al-Fateh (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Fateh's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Al-Fayha's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.84. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
50%
1.98
23%
4.39
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
3.12
1.28
Al-Fayha xG
1.98
50%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
16%
6.30
Win to Nil
14%
7.16
4%
23.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.4 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.28 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fateh's recent record stands at 11W 6D 17L from 34 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five. Al-Fateh haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Al-Fayha, meanwhile, have gone 8W 12D 14L across 34 games — 1.06 PPG, with W-L-W-L-L in their last five. Al-Fayha haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fateh on 1.15 PPG, Al-Fayha on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Fateh have managed 7W 3D 7L from 17 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fayha's away record stands at 3W 6D 8L across 17 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fateh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 0.79 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Pre-Season
Al-Fayha
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 11W 6D 17L in their last 34 games (1.15 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 8W 12D 14L in their last 34 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.41 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Fayha have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 May 2023, when Al-Fayha won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Al-Fayha specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Al-Fateh
5
Draws
5
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 0, Al-Fayha have won 5, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Al-Fayha 2-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 82%, Al-Fayha 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Al-Fateh) and 53% (Al-Fayha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al-Fayha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of Al-Fateh's games and 35% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Al-Fateh's matches and 53% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Fayha defy the odds to beat Al-Fateh 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha beat Al-Fateh 1-2 at Al Fateh club stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.84 xG and Al-Fayha 1.28 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al-Fateh fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.15 / defence 0.99 against Al-Fayha attack 0.86 / defence 1.10, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 50% | Draw 23% | Al-Fayha 27%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Al-Fayha win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 62%, Al-Fayha 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 1.15 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fayha win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.