Al-Faisaly FC 0-2 NEOM – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates NEOM at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Faisaly FC vs NEOM encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees NEOM travel to Al Majma'ah Sport City to take on Al-Faisaly FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 21 August 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Faisaly FC have gone 0W 0D 1L from 1 outings — a 0.00 PPG return. Last five: L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 4.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al-Faisaly FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
NEOM — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. NEOM have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
NEOM away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. NEOM are 1.60 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Faisaly FC 1.30 xG and NEOM 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.862 / defence 1.150 | NEOM attack 0.967 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.408. Data: 1 Al-Faisaly FC games / 35 NEOM games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 30% | Draw 28% | NEOM 42%. Fair-value odds: Al-Faisaly FC 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | NEOM 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates NEOM as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NEOM offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Faisaly FC vs NEOM | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sport City • Kick-off: Friday 21 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 30% | Draw 28% | NEOM 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Al-Faisaly FC 1.30 / NEOM 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.862 / def 1.150 | NEOM attack 0.967 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.408 • Poisson stance: NEOM (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Expected Goals
1.56
NEOM xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Faisaly FC vs NEOM kick off?
Al-Faisaly FC vs NEOM kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 21 August 2026 at Al Majma'ah Sport City.
What was the final score in Al-Faisaly FC vs NEOM?
Al-Faisaly FC 0 - 2 NEOM.
Where is Al-Faisaly FC vs NEOM being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sport City.
What competition is Al-Faisaly FC vs NEOM part of?
Al-Faisaly FC vs NEOM is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Faisaly FC vs NEOM?
Our statistical model gives Al-Faisaly FC a 30% chance of winning, NEOM a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making NEOM the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Faisaly FC vs NEOM?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al-Faisaly FC and NEOM will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Faisaly FC vs NEOM have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and NEOM?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and NEOM in?
Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 4.00 | L5 L. NEOM (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Faisaly FC's attack rating (0.86) and NEOM's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, NEOM's attack versus Al-Faisaly FC's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NEOM Win
30%
3.34
28%
3.58
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Total xG
2.86
1.56
NEOM xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
21%
4.78
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
6%
15.95
12%
8.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.6 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.5 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Faisaly FC vs NEOM?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Al-Faisaly FC and NEOM expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Al-Faisaly FC and 1.56 for NEOM, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Faisaly FC vs NEOM?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 1 outings, Al-Faisaly FC have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 1L record — L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
NEOM's form line: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W. It's still early in the season for NEOM, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, NEOM are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Faisaly FC.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Faisaly FC are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 4.00 conceded per game recently; NEOM are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Al-Faisaly FC's scoring rate against NEOM's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Faisaly FC have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; NEOM in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Faisaly FC
Early Season
NEOM
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and NEOM in coming into this match?
Al-Faisaly FC have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while NEOM have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Al-Faisaly FC
0
Draws
1
NEOM
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and NEOM?
From 1 meetings on record, Al-Faisaly FC have won 0, NEOM have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Faisaly FC and NEOM last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Al-Faisaly FC 0-2 NEOM.
Who has won more matches between Al-Faisaly FC and NEOM?
NEOM have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Faisaly FC home games / NEOM away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Faisaly FC play NEOM?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Al-Faisaly FC's games and 100% of NEOM's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Faisaly FC vs NEOM usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Al-Faisaly FC's matches and 100% of NEOM's.
Do Al-Faisaly FC and NEOM tend to score early?
Al-Faisaly FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, NEOM in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NEOM cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al-Faisaly FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEOM beat Al-Faisaly FC 0-2 at Al Majma'ah Sport City, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Faisaly FC 1.30 xG and NEOM 1.56 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al-Faisaly FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against NEOM attack 0.97 / defence 0.99, drawn from 1/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Faisaly FC 30% | Draw 28% | NEOM 42%, with NEOM to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Faisaly FC 100%, NEOM 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, NEOM arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Faisaly FC managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 2 against a 4.00 average — tighter than their form line. NEOM conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.