Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Al-Faisaly FC take on Al Khaleej Saihat.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Faisaly FC and Al Khaleej Saihat meet at in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 26 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Faisaly FC (all games): 0W 3D 3L across 6 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Faisaly FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Faisaly FC's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 1L across 3 games at this term (0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Al Khaleej Saihat have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 0W 4D 6L. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al Khaleej Saihat have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Khaleej Saihat's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.50 vs 0.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Al-Faisaly FC half-time and goal-timing data (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Al Khaleej Saihat half-time and goal-timing data (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 0% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 67% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Faisaly FC 50% versus Al Khaleej Saihat 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Faisaly FC 33% | Al Khaleej Saihat 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Faisaly FC 0.92 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.611 / defence 1.034 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.761 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.286. Al-Faisaly FC's attack strength of 0.611 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 Al-Faisaly FC games / 40 Al Khaleej Saihat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 29% | Draw 38% | Al Khaleej Saihat 34%. Fair-value odds: Al-Faisaly FC 3.45 | Draw 2.63 | Al Khaleej Saihat 2.94. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.94 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Faisaly FC 33% | Al Khaleej Saihat 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: • Kick-off: Thursday 26 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 29% | Draw 38% | Al Khaleej Saihat 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 41% | xG Al-Faisaly FC 0.92 / Al Khaleej Saihat 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.611 / def 1.034 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.761 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Thursday 26 November 2026.
What competition is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Al-Faisaly FC a 29% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 34% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Al-Faisaly FC and Al Khaleej Saihat will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al Khaleej Saihat?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al Khaleej Saihat in?
Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 0W-3D-3L in 6 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Faisaly FC's attacking strength (0.61x league average) is weighed against Al Khaleej Saihat's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. Flip it around — Al Khaleej Saihat's attack (0.76x) against Al-Faisaly FC's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 6/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.47
38%
2.66
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Total xG
1.94
1.01
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
3.47
29%
Home win
2.66
38%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
10%
9.55
13%
7.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 14.6 | 7.4 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Al-Faisaly FC and Al Khaleej Saihat expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Al-Faisaly FC and 1.01 for Al Khaleej Saihat, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Faisaly FC's recent record stands at 0W 3D 3L from 6 games, a 0.50 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Khaleej Saihat, meanwhile, have gone 0W 4D 2L across 6 games — 0.67 PPG, with D-D-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.50 PPG for Al-Faisaly FC against 0.67 for Al Khaleej Saihat. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Faisaly FC have managed 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Khaleej Saihat's away record stands at 0W 2D 1L across 3 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Faisaly FC are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Al Khaleej Saihat are on 0.33 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Al Khaleej Saihat in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Faisaly FC
Early Season
Al Khaleej Saihat
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al Khaleej Saihat in coming into this match?
Al-Faisaly FC have gone 0W 3D 3L in their last 6 games (0.50 PPG), while Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 0W 4D 2L in their last 6 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Faisaly FC at home or Al Khaleej Saihat away?
Al-Faisaly FC's home record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Faisaly FC at home: 0.67 PPG; Al Khaleej Saihat away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Al-Faisaly FC or Al Khaleej Saihat been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Faisaly FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al Khaleej Saihat in 50%.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Faisaly FC see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Al-Faisaly FC) and 33% (Al Khaleej Saihat) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Al-Faisaly FC and 33% for Al Khaleej Saihat.
On the defensive side: Al-Faisaly FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al Khaleej Saihat in 33%; Al-Faisaly FC have failed to score in 67% of games; Al Khaleej Saihat in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Faisaly FC home games / Al Khaleej Saihat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Faisaly FC play Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al-Faisaly FC's recent matches and 33% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Al-Faisaly FC's recent games and 33% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Faisaly FC and Al Khaleej Saihat tend to score early?
Al-Faisaly FC have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Al Khaleej Saihat in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.