Al-Faisaly FC 1-1 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Fateh at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fateh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Faisaly FC host Al-Fateh at Al Majma'ah Sport City in Pro League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 26 August 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Faisaly FC stand at 0W 0D 2L from 2 Pro League matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Al-Faisaly FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fateh — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Al-Fateh have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Fateh — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (0.90 vs 0.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Al-Faisaly FC have won 1, Al-Fateh 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Mar 2022, ended 1–0 with Al-Faisaly FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Faisaly FC 1.07 xG and Al-Fateh 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.693 / defence 1.205 | Al-Fateh attack 0.757 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.404. Al-Faisaly FC's attack strength of 0.693 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 2 Al-Faisaly FC games / 36 Al-Fateh games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 30% | Draw 30% | Al-Fateh 40%. Fair-value odds: Al-Faisaly FC 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Al-Fateh 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fateh are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.4 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sport City • Kick-off: Wednesday 26 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 30% | Draw 30% | Al-Fateh 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Al-Faisaly FC 1.07 / Al-Fateh 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.693 / def 1.205 | Al-Fateh attack 0.757 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.384 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Al-Fateh xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 16:00 on Wednesday 26 August 2026 at Al Majma'ah Sport City.
What was the final score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fateh?
Al-Faisaly FC 1 - 1 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sport City.
What competition is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Faisaly FC a 30% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Fateh?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Faisaly FC 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Fateh 1W.
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Fateh in?
Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L. Al-Fateh (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Faisaly FC's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Al-Fateh's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al-Faisaly FC's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
30%
3.35
30%
3.33
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Total xG
2.35
1.28
Al-Fateh xG
3.35
30%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
8%
12.09
14%
7.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 12.2 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Al-Faisaly FC and 1.28 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Faisaly FC's recent record stands at 0W 0D 2L from 2 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Fateh, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 2L across 2 games — 0.00 PPG, with L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fateh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Faisaly FC on 0.00 PPG, Al-Fateh on 0.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Al-Faisaly FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 0.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh in 0%.
Last 2 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Faisaly FC
Early Season
Al-Fateh
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Faisaly FC have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Fateh runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 26 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Feb 2022, when Al-Fateh won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Faisaly FC's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Al-Faisaly FC
1
Draws
1
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Fateh?
From 3 meetings on record, Al-Faisaly FC have won 1, Al-Fateh have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 26 August 2026, when Al-Faisaly FC 1-1 Al-Fateh.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Faisaly FC home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Faisaly FC play Al-Fateh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al-Faisaly FC's recent matches and 0% of Al-Fateh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Faisaly FC's recent games and 50% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Fateh share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Fateh finished level at 1-1 at Al Majma'ah Sport City, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Faisaly FC 1.07 xG and Al-Fateh 1.28 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.69 / defence 1.21 against Al-Fateh attack 0.76 / defence 1.11, drawn from 2/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Faisaly FC 30% | Draw 30% | Al-Fateh 40%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Faisaly FC 50%, Al-Fateh 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Faisaly FC 0.00 PPG, Al-Fateh 0.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Faisaly FC conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fateh scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.