Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Ettifaq host Al-Nassr at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 25 August 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Ettifaq haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Al-Ettifaq's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Nassr have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Al-Nassr haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Al-Nassr have gone 9W 0D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Nassr are 1.30 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 10 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Al-Ettifaq, 4 for Al-Nassr and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with Al-Nassr winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Al-Nassr trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; they lead at the break 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 56% versus Al-Nassr 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 59% | Al-Nassr 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.39 xG and Al-Nassr 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.973 / defence 1.047 | Al-Nassr attack 1.283 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.389. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack strength of 1.283 — the away xG of 1.87 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 Al-Ettifaq games / 34 Al-Nassr games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 28% | Draw 24% | Al-Nassr 48%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 3.57 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Nassr 2.08. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.87) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Nassr at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.25 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ettifaq 60% | Al-Nassr 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 25 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 28% | Draw 24% | Al-Nassr 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.39 / Al-Nassr 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.973 / def 1.047 | Al-Nassr attack 1.283 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.589 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.87
Al-Nassr xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Tuesday 25 August 2026 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 28% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 48% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr?
Record (10 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 3W | Draws 3 | Al-Nassr 4W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Ettifaq's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Al-Nassr's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Nassr's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 1.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
28%
3.56
24%
4.21
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
3.25
1.87
Al-Nassr xG
3.56
28%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
15%
6.46
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
4%
23.00
12%
8.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.0 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.87 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Ettifaq come into this having played 34 games, going 14W 8D 12L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-D. Al-Ettifaq haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Al-Nassr sit at 2.53 PPG from 34 outings (28W 2D 4L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five. Al-Nassr haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.06 PPG clear of Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Ettifaq's home form reads 7W 6D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Nassr have taken 2.35 points per game from 17 outings (13W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.68 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Nassr in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Pre-Season
Al-Nassr
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 14W 8D 12L in their last 34 games (1.47 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 28W 2D 4L in their last 34 (2.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.59 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.35 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 15 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Sep 2024, when Al-Nassr won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Al-Nassr specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al-Ettifaq
3
Draws
4
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 3, Al-Nassr have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2026, when Al-Nassr 1-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 59%, Al-Nassr 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Al-Ettifaq and 71% for Al-Nassr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Al-Nassr in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Nassr?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 47% of Al-Nassr's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Al-Ettifaq's matches and 71% of Al-Nassr's.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.