Al-Ettifaq 4-3 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 23 as Al-Ettifaq welcome Al-Fateh to Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 19 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ettifaq have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq's home record at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fateh stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fateh have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Al-Ettifaq carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Al-Fateh have the better historical record — 7 wins from 8 previous contests against 1 for Al-Ettifaq.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with Al-Fateh winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Fateh have won 7 of 8 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ettifaq in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Al-Fateh in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ettifaq 56% and Al-Fateh 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 54% | Al-Fateh 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.23 xG and Al-Fateh 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.923 / defence 0.868 | Al-Fateh attack 0.819 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.329. Data: 55 Al-Ettifaq games / 55 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 42% | Draw 30% | Al-Fateh 28%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Al-Fateh 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Al-Fateh lead the H2H ledger, but Al-Ettifaq carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ettifaq 40% | Al-Fateh 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 19 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 42% | Draw 30% | Al-Fateh 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.23 / Al-Fateh 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.923 / def 0.868 | Al-Fateh attack 0.819 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Al-Fateh xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 19 February 2026 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh?
Al-Ettifaq 4 - 3 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 42% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh?
Record (8 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Fateh 7W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Al-Fateh (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Ettifaq's attack at 0.92x the league average against Al-Fateh's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
42%
2.38
30%
3.31
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.17
0.94
Al-Fateh xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
16%
6.11
8%
12.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 10.7 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.2 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 0.94 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, Al-Ettifaq have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 24W 13D 18L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fateh's form line: 17W 12D 26L from 55 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-L. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ettifaq are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Fateh.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Ettifaq have posted 1.33 PPG from 27 outings (10W 6D 11L).
On the road, Al-Fateh have gone 6W 7D 14L from 27 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ettifaq come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.33 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh in 67%.
Last 55 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 24W 13D 18L in their last 55 games (1.55 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 17W 12D 26L in their last 55 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.33 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Ettifaq have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2022, when Al-Fateh won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al-Ettifaq
0
Draws
7
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 3, Al-Fateh have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Al-Fateh 0-1 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 48%, Al-Fateh 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Al-Ettifaq) and 48% (Al-Fateh).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 33% of games; Al-Fateh in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Fateh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 56% of Al-Fateh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 48% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ettifaq edge out Al-Fateh 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al-Fateh 4-3 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.23 xG and Al-Fateh 0.94 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Fateh outscored their 0.94 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.92 / defence 0.87 against Al-Fateh attack 0.82 / defence 0.92, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 42% | Draw 30% | Al-Fateh 28%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 54%, Al-Fateh 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ettifaq arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.15. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.