Al-Ahli Jeddah 2-2 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Ahli Jeddah host Al-Ittihad FC at Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City in Pro League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 April 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Ittihad FC — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.20 PPG, Al-Ittihad FC 2.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Ahli Jeddah register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 3 for Al-Ittihad FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2024, ended 0–1 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Al-Ittihad FC trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 76% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 51% versus Al-Ittihad FC 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 54% | Al-Ittihad FC 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.83 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.399 / defence 0.951 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.189 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.316. Al-Ahli Jeddah carry an above-average attack strength of 1.399 — their λ of 1.83 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 59 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 59 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 46% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.17 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Ittihad FC 3.23. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.32 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ahli Jeddah 60% | Al-Ittihad FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Apr 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 46% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.83 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.399 / def 0.951 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.189 / def 0.888 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Al-Ittihad FC xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 5 April 2025 at Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 2 - 2 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 46% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 31% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 2W | Draws 0 | Al-Ittihad FC 3W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Ahli Jeddah's attacking strength (1.40x league average) is weighed against Al-Ittihad FC's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad FC's attack versus Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
46%
2.18
23%
4.42
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
3.32
1.49
Al-Ittihad FC xG
2.18
46%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
23%
4.42
16%
6.25
Win to Nil
10%
9.64
5%
19.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 9.9 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.49 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 59 outings, Al-Ahli Jeddah have picked up 1.92 PPG on a 34W 11D 14L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC's form line: 35W 10D 14L from 59 games, 1.95 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-W. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ahli Jeddah on 1.92 PPG, Al-Ittihad FC on 1.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 2.17 PPG from 29 outings (19W 6D 4L).
On the road, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 14W 7D 8L from 29 away games — 1.69 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 2.07 scored and 1.32 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC in 68%.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 34W 11D 14L in their last 59 games (1.92 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 35W 10D 14L in their last 59 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.17 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Ahli Jeddah go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's record when hosting Al-Ittihad FC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1
Draws
3
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 4, Al-Ittihad FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 48%, Al-Ittihad FC 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Al-Ahli Jeddah) and 55% (Al-Ittihad FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Al-Ittihad FC in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al-Ittihad FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent matches and 59% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent games and 55% of Al-Ittihad FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City, Regular Season - 26, as Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC drew 2-2 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.83 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.49 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.40 / defence 0.95 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.19 / defence 0.89, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 46% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad FC 31%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 54%, Al-Ittihad FC 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.92 PPG, Al-Ittihad FC 1.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.