Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ahli Jeddah face Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Ahli Jeddah host Al-Hilal Saudi FC at King Abdullah Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 6 May 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ahli Jeddah — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at King Abdullah Sports City, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sports City. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC stand at 10W 0D 0L from 10 Pro League matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 10W 0D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Hilal Saudi FC — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (3.00 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 2 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2023, ended 1–3 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 52% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 59% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.17 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.016 / defence 0.751 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.767 / defence 0.786. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.376. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence strength of 0.786 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.767 — the away xG of 1.83 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating of 0.751 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 29 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 59 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 23% | Draw 25% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 52%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 4.35 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.92. Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Al-Ahli Jeddah 30% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Monday 6 May 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 23% | Draw 25% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.17 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.016 / def 0.751 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.767 / def 0.786 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 6 May 2024 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 1 - 2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 23% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 52% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Ahli Jeddah's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack versus Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence, projects 1.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
23%
4.26
25%
4.04
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
3.00
1.83
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
4.26
23%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
16%
6.21
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
4%
26.43
16%
6.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 9.1 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.7 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.83 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent record stands at 16W 7D 6L from 29 games, a 1.90 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-W in the last five.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC, meanwhile, have gone 27W 2D 0L across 29 games — 2.86 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 0.96 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ahli Jeddah heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Ahli Jeddah have managed 9W 4D 1L from 14 games — 2.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record stands at 13W 1D 0L across 14 trips, a 2.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 3.07 scored and 0.62 conceded. Al-Ahli Jeddah's scoring rate against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Current Season
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 16W 7D 6L in their last 29 games (1.90 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 27W 2D 0L in their last 29 (2.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.21 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.86 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 1 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Sep 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's record when hosting Al-Hilal Saudi FC specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Al-Ahli Jeddah
3
Draws
5
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 9 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 1, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 1 September 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3-0 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ahli Jeddah see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 36%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Al-Ahli Jeddah) and 71% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 50%; Al-Ahli Jeddah have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent matches and 50% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent games and 71% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Hilal Saudi FC edge out Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-2 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 28, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.17 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.83 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.02 / defence 0.75 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.77 / defence 0.79, drawn from 29/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 23% | Draw 25% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 52%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 59%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.86 PPG against 1.90. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.29 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.