Zenit 3-0 Krylia Sovetov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zenit at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zenit vs Krylia Sovetov encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zenit host Krylia Sovetov at Saint-Petersburg Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 22 July 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Zenit — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Zenit have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zenit's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 games at Saint-Petersburg Stadium this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 3.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Zenit are significantly better at Saint-Petersburg Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Krylia Sovetov stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Krylia Sovetov have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Krylia Sovetov's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
On current form, Zenit have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Zenit, 0 for Krylia Sovetov and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Zenit in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Krylia Sovetov in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zenit 71% and Krylia Sovetov 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zenit 55% | Krylia Sovetov 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zenit 1.92 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zenit attack 1.244 / defence 0.898 | Krylia Sovetov attack 1.157 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.408 / away 1.295. Data: 31 Zenit games / 31 Krylia Sovetov games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Zenit 50% | Draw 25% | Krylia Sovetov 26%. Fair-value odds: Zenit 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Krylia Sovetov 3.85. Zenit hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.92 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zenit as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zenit offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Zenit 70% | Krylia Sovetov 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zenit vs Krylia Sovetov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Saint-Petersburg Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 22 Jul 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zenit 50% | Draw 25% | Krylia Sovetov 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Zenit 1.92 / Krylia Sovetov 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Zenit attack 1.244 / def 0.898 | Krylia Sovetov attack 1.157 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.408 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Zenit (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Zenit xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Krylia Sovetov xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zenit vs Krylia Sovetov kick off?
Zenit vs Krylia Sovetov kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 22 July 2022 at Saint-Petersburg Stadium.
What was the final score in Zenit vs Krylia Sovetov?
Zenit 3 - 0 Krylia Sovetov.
Where is Zenit vs Krylia Sovetov being played?
The match is being played at Saint-Petersburg Stadium.
What competition is Zenit vs Krylia Sovetov part of?
Zenit vs Krylia Sovetov is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Zenit vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our statistical model gives Zenit a 50% chance of winning, Krylia Sovetov a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Zenit the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zenit vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Zenit and Krylia Sovetov will score (BTTS).
Will Zenit vs Krylia Sovetov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zenit and Krylia Sovetov?
Record (2 meetings): Zenit 1W | Draws 1 | Krylia Sovetov 0W.
What form are Zenit and Krylia Sovetov in?
Zenit (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Zenit's attack at 1.24x the league average against Krylia Sovetov's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Krylia Sovetov's attack versus Zenit's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
50%
2.02
25%
4.02
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Zenit xG
Total xG
3.27
1.35
Krylia Sovetov xG
2.02
50%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
15%
6.83
Win to Nil
13%
7.74
4%
26.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zenit vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Zenit and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Zenit and 1.35 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Zenit vs Krylia Sovetov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 31 outings, Zenit have picked up 2.13 PPG on a 19W 9D 3L record — W-W-D-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Zenit, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Krylia Sovetov's form line: 13W 5D 13L from 31 games, 1.42 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Zenit are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Krylia Sovetov.
Venue Form
On home soil, Zenit have posted 2.67 PPG from 15 outings (13W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 2.13 PPG overall — Zenit are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Krylia Sovetov have gone 6W 2D 7L from 15 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zenit come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Zenit are averaging 2.16 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Krylia Sovetov are on 1.39 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zenit have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 31 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zenit
Early Season
Krylia Sovetov
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zenit and Krylia Sovetov in coming into this match?
Zenit have gone 19W 9D 3L in their last 31 games (2.13 PPG), while Krylia Sovetov have gone 13W 5D 13L in their last 31 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zenit at home or Krylia Sovetov away?
Zenit's home record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zenit at home: 2.67 PPG; Krylia Sovetov away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Apr 2023, when Zenit won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zenit's record when hosting Krylia Sovetov specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Zenit
3
Draws
1
Krylia Sovetov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zenit and Krylia Sovetov?
From 10 meetings on record, Zenit have won 6, Krylia Sovetov have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Zenit and Krylia Sovetov last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Zenit 2-1 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between Zenit and Krylia Sovetov?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zenit are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zenit 73%, Krylia Sovetov 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Zenit and 47% for Krylia Sovetov. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zenit home games / Krylia Sovetov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zenit play Krylia Sovetov?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Zenit's games and 53% of Krylia Sovetov's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zenit vs Krylia Sovetov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Zenit's matches and 47% of Krylia Sovetov's.
Do Zenit and Krylia Sovetov tend to score early?
Zenit have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Krylia Sovetov in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Zenit run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Krylia Sovetov.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zenit beat Krylia Sovetov 3-0 at Saint-Petersburg Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zenit 1.92 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.35 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Zenit beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Krylia Sovetov landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zenit attack 1.24 / defence 0.90 against Krylia Sovetov attack 1.16 / defence 1.10, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Zenit 50% | Draw 25% | Krylia Sovetov 26%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zenit 55%, Krylia Sovetov 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zenit's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.42. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Zenit (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.