Ural 0-1 FC Rostov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Rostov at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ural vs FC Rostov encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Ural welcome FC Rostov to Ekaterinburg Arena in Premier League (matchday 21). Kick-off is Thursday 25 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Ural have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ural's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Rostov — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
FC Rostov away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. FC Rostov are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Ural have won 2, FC Rostov 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.6 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 29 Sep 2023, ended Ural 2–2 FC Rostov — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ural in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
FC Rostov in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ural 48% versus FC Rostov 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ural 56% | FC Rostov 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ural 1.26 xG and FC Rostov 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ural attack 0.990 / defence 1.167 | FC Rostov attack 1.103 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.349. Data: built from Ural's last 54 games and FC Rostov's last 54.
Result probabilities: Ural 27% | Draw 24% | FC Rostov 48%. Fair-value odds: Ural 3.64 | Draw 4.09 | FC Rostov 2.08. FC Rostov hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.26 / 1.74) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Rostov at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Rostov offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Ural's last 10 home games and FC Rostov's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ural 70% (last 10 home games) | FC Rostov 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ural vs FC Rostov | Competition: Premier League, matchday 21 | Venue: Ekaterinburg Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 25 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ural 27% | Draw 24% | FC Rostov 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Ural 1.26 / FC Rostov 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Ural attack 0.990 / def 1.167 | FC Rostov attack 1.103 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: FC Rostov (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Ural xG
Expected Goals
1.74
FC Rostov xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ural vs FC Rostov FAQs
What time does Ural vs FC Rostov kick off?
Ural vs FC Rostov kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Thursday 25 April 2024 at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What was the final score in Ural vs FC Rostov?
Ural 0 - 1 FC Rostov.
Where is Ural vs FC Rostov being played?
The match is being played at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What competition is Ural vs FC Rostov part of?
Ural vs FC Rostov is a Premier League fixture (matchday 21) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Ural vs FC Rostov?
Our statistical model gives Ural a 27% chance of winning, FC Rostov a 48% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC Rostov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ural vs FC Rostov?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Ural and FC Rostov will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ural vs FC Rostov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ural's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against FC Rostov's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, FC Rostov's attack versus Ural's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ural's last 54 games and FC Rostov's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Rostov Win
27%
3.64
24%
4.09
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Ural xG
Total xG
3.00
1.74
FC Rostov xG
3.64
27%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
18%
5.67
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
5%
20.64
14%
7.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.6 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.9 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.9 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ural vs FC Rostov Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ural vs FC Rostov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Ural and FC Rostov expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Ural and 1.74 for FC Rostov, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Ural vs FC Rostov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, Ural have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 16W 12D 26L record — L-D-L-W-D across the most recent five.
FC Rostov's form line: 24W 15D 15L from 54 games, 1.61 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-L.
Put side by side, FC Rostov are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ural.
Venue Form
On home soil, Ural have posted 1.31 PPG from their last 26 home games (10W 4D 12L).
On the road, FC Rostov have gone 8W 8D 10L from their last 26 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Ural are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; FC Rostov are on 1.56 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Rostov in 67%.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ural
Blended
FC Rostov
Blended
Ural (Home) vs FC Rostov (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ural
Blended
FC Rostov
Blended
❓ Ural vs FC Rostov Form FAQs
What form are Ural and FC Rostov in coming into this match?
Ural have gone 16W 12D 26L in their last 54 games (1.11 PPG), while FC Rostov have gone 24W 15D 15L in their last 54 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ural at home or FC Rostov away?
Ural's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ural at home: 1.31 PPG; FC Rostov away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from August 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 25 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Dec 2021, when Ural won FC Rostov 1-4 Ural.
Ural's record when hosting FC Rostov specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Ural
2
Draws
2
FC Rostov
Recent Meetings
❓ Ural vs FC Rostov H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and FC Rostov?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Ural have won 2, FC Rostov have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ural and FC Rostov last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 April 2024: Ural 0-1 FC Rostov.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ural are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
FC Rostov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ural 58%, FC Rostov 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Ural) and 58% (FC Rostov). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ural have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ural home games / FC Rostov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ural vs FC Rostov Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ural and FC Rostov matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Ural's games and 65% of FC Rostov's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Ural and FC Rostov matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Ural's matches and 58% of FC Rostov's.
Do Ural and FC Rostov matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Ural's recent matches and 69% of FC Rostov's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Rostov edge out Ural 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Rostov beat Ural 0-1 at Ekaterinburg Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ural 1.26 xG and FC Rostov 1.74 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ural fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ural attack 0.99 / defence 1.17 against FC Rostov attack 1.10 / defence 0.94, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ural 27% | Draw 24% | FC Rostov 48%, with FC Rostov to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ural 56%, FC Rostov 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ural's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Rostov's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Rostov arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.11. That form edge translated into the three points. Ural (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Rostov (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.