Fakel 0-1 Krylia Sovetov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fakel at 41%, yet in-form Krylia Sovetov provide a compelling counter-argument — this Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fakel and Krylia Sovetov meet at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov in Premier League (matchday 21). This fixture gets under way on Thursday 25 April 2024 at 17:15 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Fakel have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Fakel have posted 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Fakel are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Krylia Sovetov (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Krylia Sovetov away from home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Krylia Sovetov arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Fakel, 1 for Krylia Sovetov and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Sep 2023, ended Fakel 0–3 Krylia Sovetov — a Krylia Sovetov win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Fakel half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Krylia Sovetov half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fakel 46% versus Krylia Sovetov 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fakel 33% | Krylia Sovetov 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fakel 1.12 xG and Krylia Sovetov 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fakel attack 0.718 / defence 0.754 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.882 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.339. Fakel's attack rating of 0.718 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.12. Fakel have a tight defence (rating 0.754), which is pulling Krylia Sovetov's projected output down. Data: built from Fakel's last 54 games and Krylia Sovetov's last 54.
Result probabilities: Fakel 41% | Draw 31% | Krylia Sovetov 29%. Fair-value odds: Fakel 2.46 | Draw 3.26 | Krylia Sovetov 3.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fakel are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Krylia Sovetov (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fakel if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 67% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Fakel's last 10 home games and Krylia Sovetov's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fakel 20% (last 10 home games) | Krylia Sovetov 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov | Competition: Premier League, matchday 21 | Venue: Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov • Kick-off: Thursday 25 April 2024 at 17:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fakel 41% | Draw 31% | Krylia Sovetov 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Fakel 1.12 / Krylia Sovetov 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Fakel attack 0.718 / def 0.754 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.882 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Fakel (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Fakel xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Krylia Sovetov xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov FAQs
What time does Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov kick off?
Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov kicked off at 17:15 UK time on Thursday 25 April 2024 at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov.
What was the final score in Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov?
Fakel 0 - 1 Krylia Sovetov.
Where is Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov being played?
The match is being played at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov.
What competition is Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov part of?
Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov is a Premier League fixture (matchday 21) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our statistical model gives Fakel a 41% chance of winning, Krylia Sovetov a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Fakel the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Fakel and Krylia Sovetov will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fakel's attack rating (0.72) and Krylia Sovetov's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Krylia Sovetov's attack (0.88x) against Fakel's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from Fakel's last 54 games and Krylia Sovetov's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fakel Win
41%
2.46
31%
3.26
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Fakel xG
Total xG
2.02
0.89
Krylia Sovetov xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
9%
10.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 11.9 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Fakel and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Fakel and 0.89 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fakel come into this having played 54 games, going 14W 19D 21L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Krylia Sovetov sit at 1.26 PPG from 54 outings (18W 14D 22L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Fakel against 1.26 for Krylia Sovetov. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Fakel's home form reads 8W 13D 6L across their last 27 home games, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Krylia Sovetov have taken 0.93 points per game from their last 27 away games (7W 4D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fakel come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fakel are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Krylia Sovetov are on 1.37 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Krylia Sovetov in 61%.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fakel
Blended
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
Fakel (Home) vs Krylia Sovetov (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fakel
Blended
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
❓ Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov Form FAQs
What form are Fakel and Krylia Sovetov in coming into this match?
Fakel have gone 14W 19D 21L in their last 54 games (1.13 PPG), while Krylia Sovetov have gone 18W 14D 22L in their last 54 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fakel at home or Krylia Sovetov away?
Fakel's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fakel at home: 1.37 PPG; Krylia Sovetov away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Fakel or Krylia Sovetov been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fakel have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Krylia Sovetov in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 7 H2H matches between Fakel and Krylia Sovetov, the earliest from August 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Krylia Sovetov won Krylia Sovetov 3-0 Fakel on 2 Sep 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fakel have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Krylia Sovetov — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Fakel
2
Draws
3
Krylia Sovetov
Recent Meetings
❓ Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fakel and Krylia Sovetov?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Fakel have won 2, Krylia Sovetov have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fakel and Krylia Sovetov last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Krylia Sovetov 1-2 Fakel.
Who has won more matches between Fakel and Krylia Sovetov?
Krylia Sovetov have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fakel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 71% of those situations.
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fakel 48%, Krylia Sovetov 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Fakel) and 70% (Krylia Sovetov).
On the defensive side: Fakel keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Fakel have failed to score in 26% of games; Krylia Sovetov in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fakel home games / Krylia Sovetov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fakel and Krylia Sovetov matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Fakel's games and 67% of Krylia Sovetov's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Fakel and Krylia Sovetov matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Fakel's recent games and 70% of Krylia Sovetov's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fakel and Krylia Sovetov matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Fakel's recent matches and 70% of Krylia Sovetov's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Krylia Sovetov defy the odds to beat Fakel 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Krylia Sovetov beat Fakel 0-1 at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fakel 1.12 xG and Krylia Sovetov 0.89 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Fakel fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fakel attack 0.72 / defence 0.75 against Krylia Sovetov attack 0.88 / defence 1.17, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fakel 41% | Draw 31% | Krylia Sovetov 29%, with Fakel to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Krylia Sovetov win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fakel 33%, Krylia Sovetov 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fakel's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fakel 1.13 PPG, Krylia Sovetov 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Krylia Sovetov win broke the near-deadlock. Fakel (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.